In the lawsuit between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, all eyes are on the fast-approaching January 15, 2025 deadline. This date marks the final opportunity for the SEC to file its opening brief in the appeal against Ripple—a key legal milestone that could determine the near-term trajectory of the dispute.
Ripple Vs. SEC: What January 15 Could Bring
According to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, if the SEC fails to meet this deadline, the appeal will be dismissed. This effectively means that, without a timely filing, the current stage of litigation against Ripple would come to an abrupt close. For now, however, there is little indication the SEC will miss this critical date.
Simultaneously, significant political changes in the United States have injected an extra dimension of speculation into the case. On January 20, former President Donald Trump will be sworn in once again, with Paul Atkins—nominated by Trump in December 2024—to step in as the new SEC Chair. Atkins is known for his pro-crypto-stance, stirring rumors that a shift in the agency’s enforcement posture could be imminent, potentially culminating in the SEC dropping its appeal against Ripple.
On X, prominent pro-XRP attorney Jeremy Hogan shared his thoughts on the implications of the January 15 deadline, especially against the backdrop of incoming leadership changes at the SEC. He emphasized that while the SEC must file its brief to comply with court requirements, this procedural step may have little long-term bearing.
“I’ve been getting some Qs about the January 15 SEC filing deadline in the Ripple v. SEC appeal. Don’t be surprised when the SEC’s brief IS filed timely and don’t be dismayed. This is still Gensler’s SEC. The filing on January 15 has NO effect on whether the case will be settled (I think likely) or dismissed by the new administration,” Hogan explained.
He underscored that an attorney within the SEC will be diligently preparing this brief—what he called: “A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Perhaps a fitting end to the war on crypto.”
When pressed by a user to break down his statement, Hogan offered a straightforward explanation: “The SEC will file its brief on January 15 because it has to, but that doesn’t mean the incoming heads of the SEC won’t settle the case. It changes nothing.”
Marc Fagel, a retired securities lawyer, added context to why the SEC has no alternative other than filing the opening brief: “Well said. Those suggesting the SEC will not file the opening brief don’t understand how the SEC operates. Absent the current (GG-led) SEC reversing course and voting to drop the appeal (why would they?), the staff has no choice other than to draft & file the brief. Not optional!”
Hogan echoed Fagel’s comment, noting: “The Order even says absolutely no extensions will be granted (very different than my appellate court) so requesting an extension is not an option either.”
Potential Settlement Timeline
The XRP community is increasingly curious about the likelihood of a new crypto-friendly administration disposing of the case once and for all. In a question posed by Johnny Krypto, Hogan was asked to weigh in on the prospects of Paul Atkins dropping the appeal and settling with Ripple in 2025.
Hogan responded:“I definitely think that’s the most likely scenario (with the Ripple case being a non-fraud/no investor’s harmed case). Like most of these things, it’s just the timing that is difficult to lock down—maybe April or May?”
Another user inquired about the odds of the Ripple/SEC case being dismissed, settled, or dropped by February 2025. Hogan tempered expectations: “I’d say it’s possible but maybe unlikely. 40 days is not a lot of time to get reports together, memos, have the requisite SEC meetings, etc. I’m going with April/May as a likely timeframe.”
At press time, XRP traded at $2.44.
