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Nexo

Why a “Blue Wave” Biden Win Could Be the Best Scenario for Bitcoin

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
2 years ago
in Bitcoin
0

In a new note to investors, Goldman Sachs projects “low odds” that the dollar will close the year on a high note, chiefly due to a potential “blue wave” win where Biden sweeps the vote. These poor conditions for the greenback, however, is a best-case scenario for Bitcoin, which could benefit enormously if Democrats take office.

How a Democratic Victory & Joe Biden Win Could Positively Impact Bitcoin

2020 is unarguably the most challenging year of modern times. Capping off what has been a year of fear, uncertainty, money printing, protest, and more, is the United States’ most pivotal election in years.

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Biden is currently leading Trump in the polls, and markets could soon begin to price in the ever-increasing chances of a Democrat victory in the White House. Policy change due to Dems taking over may not bode well for stocks, but it could benefit Bitcoin for several key reasons.

RELATED READING | WHY THE UPCOMING US ELECTION IS BITCOIN’S BIGGEST RISK

In the past, the uncertainty leading into the campaign season and the election has kept Bitcoin’s price from retesting all-time highs. It wasn’t until the month the current President Donal Trump took office that sent Bitcoin soaring through $1,000 to a peak of $20,000 a year later.

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bitcoin biden blue wave united states election dollar

BTCUSD Monthly New All-Time High After Presidential Election Conclusion Example | Source: TradingView

But a Biden may be even more beneficial to the future of Bitcoin than the boost the crypto asset saw the last time the dust settled on the US election. For one, democratic policy is more fostering toward technological innovation, whereas the Trump administration has recently taken a hard stance against cryptocurrencies.

However, the most critical reason has a lot more to do with green, and we don’t mean their environmental policies.

Goldman Sachs: “Low Odds” The Dollar Rebounds In 2020, Risk Of Return To 2018 Low

In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs tells a woeful story of a weakening dollar that has “low odds” of any positive outcome by year’s end. Co-Head of Global FX, Rates and EM Strategy Zach Pandl recommended taking short positions against the dollar across two different baskets of competing currencies.

The dollar is expected to decline even further if Biden succeeds, which is now projected at a 60% chance based on the latest poll information. “In our view, a ‘blue wave’ U.S. election and favorable news on the vaccine timeline could return the trade-weighted Dollar and DXY index to their 2018 lows,” Pandl concluded.

dollar dxy bitcoin biden blue wave

DXY Correlation Over BTCUSD Monthly Price Chart | Source: TradingView

The 2018 low Pandl points to was also just after Bitcoin’s 2017 peak, and during peak altcoin season when speculation sent the prices of other top crypto assets like Ethereum and XRP to all-time highs.

RELATED READING | DOLLAR INDEX FRACTAL SUGGESTS AN INCREDIBLE ALTCOIN SEASON IS ON THE HORIZON

If Biden wins, and as Pandl suggests, a vaccine is on track for sooner than later, the safe haven of the dollar won’t be as attractive, and it could lead to enormous growth in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies due to the dollar’s weakness.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Chats from TradingView
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a digital media executive and global remote work leader with a decade of content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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