In a bold and visionary statement, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has laid out his compelling argument for a monumental Bitcoin price surge in the era of artificial intelligence (AI). In his recently published blog post titled “Massa,” Hayes shares his insights on the interplay between Bitcoin and AI, asserting that BTC will become the currency of choice for AI-powered economies.
Hayes passionately describes the profound impact of AI on humanity and envisions a future where AI frees individuals to pursue their passions, leading to a renaissance of art and culture. Hayes states, “To that end, my hope is that artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics will be used primarily to eliminate the tedious, bullshit work in which most of humanity currently toils, so that more and more people can pursue their passions in a similar fashion.”
The BitMEX founder acknowledges the exponential growth of AI, exemplified by the ChatGPT’s rapid adoption, which reached an astounding 100 million monthly active users in just two months. Hayes posits that this technological advancement will bring us to the brink of a significant turning point, where AI goes viral and revolutionizes our lives in unprecedented ways.
Hayes’ Bold Bitcoin Prediction
In his blog post, Hayes outlines the potential interplay between Bicoin and AI. He delves into the necessity of a censorship-resistant digital payments system that operates continuously, with clear and transparent rules. According to him, BTC’s attributes as a purely digital, censorship-resistant, and provably scarce currency are making it the most suitable choice for AIs.
Hayes writes, “Bitcoin is thus the logical currency choice for any AI. It is purely digital, censorship-resistant, provably scarce, and its intrinsic value is completely electricity-cost-dependent.” His compelling argument asserts that Bitcoin’s properties align perfectly with the requirements of AIs, making it the clear frontrunner as the currency of their economic actions.
Moreover, Hayes considers the future implications of BTC’s dominance in the AI era. He speculates on the potential surge in on-chain transaction volumes and ponders the staggering heights Bitcoin’s price could reach if the narrative of AI + Bitcoin becomes mainstream.
Nonetheless, Hayes emphasizes the importance of market sentiment and the power of narrative, stating, “The most money is made when the market price adjusts from ‘can never happen’ to ‘maybe could happen”, adding that value of the Bitcoin network is a bet on the future amount of transactions that will take place.
“To get a sense of what is possible, I looked at the past multiples starting in 2015. I took the daily value of BTC transfers on the network excluding change returned to the sender. I then looked back at the past 365-day median to get a value that isn’t influenced by very high or low daily values. Finally, I divided the current day’s Bitcoin market cap by the daily median value to arrive at the forward multiple,” explained Hayes.
He then created a low (8x), median (23x) and mania (172x) estimation and assumes that the velocity of Bitcoin transactions will match the total amount of GDP. “That intuitively makes sense, because GDP is just a measure of economic activity – so it follows that there must be at least that amount of payments going back and forth between economic actors,” Hayes added.
With these calculations, Hayes predicts the following outcomes: If the size of the AI economy reaches 5%, the median estimation suggests a BTC price of $47,260, while in a mania scenario, the Bitcoin price would surge to $152,589.
If the size of the AI Economy reaches 10%, the median estimation projects a BTC price of $63,520, with a mania scenario potentially pushing the price to $274,197. If the size of AI Economy reaches 30%, the median estimation is $128,561 per BTC, in a mania scenario the Bitcoin price could reach a whopping price of $760,591.
At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $30,141 after sweeping the range low once again yesterday.
