The price of Bitcoin started the year on a strong momentum, which was further buoyed by the launch of spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in January. The premier cryptocurrency capitalized on its introduction to a new batch of investors, forging a new all-time high of $73,737 in mid-March.
However, Bitcoin has since slowed down in the past few months, with several investors and crypto enthusiasts wondering if the bull cycle is over. The latest commentary has come from a blockchain firm that has put forward something of a timeline for the flagship cryptocurrency’s bull run.
Bitcoin Price Down By 12% From Its Halving Price
In a new report on the X platform, crypto intelligence firm IntoTheBlock has shared insight into the behavior of Bitcoin during a halving year and how it plays into the procession of the bull cycle. The fourth halving event, which occurred in April, saw miners’ rewards fall from 12.5 to 6.25.
Although Bitcoin halving is a theoretically bullish phenomenon, the months following the event have not been particularly positive for the premier cryptocurrency. According to data from IntoTheBlock, BTC has declined by 12% from its halving value of $63,900.
While the market leader’s current position is somewhat better than the pre-halving projections, it still has been a source of concern for several investors. However, the underwhelming post-halving performance of BTC may not be the end, as the price still seems far from its cycle peak.
Source: IntoTheBlock/X
IntoTheBlock noted in its report that, from a historical standpoint, the average time between the Bitcoin halving and the next peak is 480 days. This would put the cycle top sometime around the summer of 2025.
The price of Bitcoin has been in a consolidation range in the past two quarters, oscillating between $55,000 and $69,000. A sustained break above the $70,000 mark could signal the resumption of the bull cycle.
When Will The Bull Cycle Resume?
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has aired a similar commentary about the current state of the Bitcoin bull cycle. According to the crypto founder, BTC is only in the middle of its bull cycle and “hasn’t hit the retail bubble yet.” For context, the retail bubble refers to the phase where there is a significant influx of retail investors in the market.
It is worth noting that the BTC demand in some markets, specifically the United States, seems to be waning at the moment. This trend is highlighted by the falling Coinbase spot trading volume dominance, which is back to the pre-spot ETF levels. Young Ju noted that US BTC demand needs to bounce back if the bull cycle is to resume.
The CryptoQuant CEO added:
I expect this in Q4, but I could be wrong.
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $54,000, with a mere 0.5% increase in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the market leader is down by more than 8.5% in the past week, according to CoinGecko data.
The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView