The Bitcoin and crypto market have been experiencing a stronger correction since last Wednesday, rattling the bullish sentiment of the past few weeks. While the 1-week chart of Bitcoin still looks very bullish as long as the price stays above $25,000, the market is near the critical area in the 1-day chart.
Any divergence below $26,800 could mean a trend change on a daily basis. On the upside, the $27,800 area is of key importance. If this level is breached, the uptrend could resume sooner than expected by the bears. In the week ahead, several events and data are in place that could determine a trend direction.
This Will Be Important For Bitcoin And Crypto
Tomorrow, Tuesday, April 25, the Conference Board will publish the latest US consumer confidence figures for March at 10:00 am (EST). In the previous month, consumer confidence came in at 104.2, well above expectations of 101.0.
In recent months, strong consumer data has been viewed positively by the crypto market. Therefore, a beat on expectations should have a slight positive impact on Bitcoin. Weak consumer confidence could be an indication of an impending recession and accordingly mean a widening correction in the crypto market.
On Thursday, April 27, US gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the first quarter of trade in 2023 will be released in advance at 8:30 am (EST). Recently, the weak data led to a price correction in both the stock market and the crypto market.
The initial estimate for GDP is 2.0%, well below the final data for the fourth quarter of 2022 (2.6%). If the forecast is confirmed, the financial market is likely to trend downwards for fear of an approaching recession. Exceeding the estimate, on the other hand, could trigger bullish momentum for Bitcoin and crypto.
However, the most crucial macro data point comes at the end of the week. On Friday, April 28 at 8:30 am (EST), the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for March.
February’s core PCE was +0.3% on a monthly basis, below the forecast of +0.4%. For March, analysts expect an unchanged +0.3% increase. On an annualized basis (YoY), the forecast is for a 4.5% increase, down from 4.6% last month (forecast: 4.7%)
If core PCE turns out higher, it will be bearish and likely weigh on the crypto market. On the other hand, if the core inflation rate increased less, as in the previous month, a bullish reaction can be expected. The Bitcoin price is expected to benefit from continued falling inflation rates.
Meanwhile, crypto podcaster Tony Edwards issued another warning. According to him, the biggest crypto critic in all of Washington DC, Elizabeth Warren, could present an anti-crypto law that supposedly has no chance of success, but could still shock the market for the time being.
I've been told corrupt @SenWarren will be releasing a major anti-crypto bill soon. While I don't think it will get passed, it may impact the market. Could happen this week.
Keep fighting! contact your representatives, tweet, make content etc.
— Tony Edward (Thinking Crypto Podcast) (@ThinkingCrypto1) April 23, 2023
At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $27,669, struggling to break the resistance zone around $28,800.
BTC price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com