As the US presidential election approaches, crypto traders and analysts are speculating that a victory for Donald Trump in November could significantly boost the Bitcoin price to new heights, according to a report by the Financial Times.
Despite expectations of a post-Halving rally, BTC has struggled to gain momentum since April, facing various factors such as sales of seized assets by US and German authorities and the overhang of $9 billion in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) sales from the defunct Japanese exchange Mt Gox.
However, market participants are increasingly discussing the possibility of a “Trump trade” that could boost the Bitcoin price in the second half of the year.
Trump’s Victory As Potential Catalyst For Price Rebound
Following the Halving event in April, during which the daily supply of BTC available to miners was cut in half, the Bitcoin price has decreased by over 20% in the past month alone.
Several factors have contributed to this lackluster performance, including the selling pressure from authorities holding over $15 billion worth of BTC over the past weeks and the BTC basis trade dampening volatility by hedge funds. Traders and analysts have been searching for the catalyst to drive the next upward movement of Bitcoin prices.
According to the Financial Times, market optimism surrounding a potential Trump victory in the upcoming US elections is growing. Traders and analysts perceive Trump as a more pro-crypto candidate, given his positive engagement with the industry and acceptance of crypto contributions.
Industry executives hope that a Trump administration, coupled with a strong Republican showing in Congress, will lead to more favorable and clear crypto regulations.
According to Manuel Villegas, a Julius Baer analyst, the expectation is that Trump’s energy policy proposals could benefit crypto mining firms, potentially enabling alternative energy sources for Bitcoin mining.
In contrast, concerns about Biden’s prior tax propositions on crypto miners have been raised, such as a proposed 30% levy.
How New Policies Could Shape Bitcoin’s Price
Per the report, the potential implications of Trump’s policies on financial markets have also sparked interest. If Trump’s policies lead to increased US deficit, more tariffs on foreign goods, and tax cuts, it could result in higher inflation and US Treasury yields.
This scenario, known as “fiscal dominance,” could affect the Bitcoin price, which has shown a correlation with crucial US Treasury markers, according to Geoff Kendrick, analyst at Standard Chartered. A steeper curve and higher break-even rates could push the BTC’s price higher, as it acts as a hedge against declining confidence in the US Treasury market.
Nonetheless, the likelihood of a “Trump trade” and its impact on BTC’s momentum largely depends on the opponent Trump faces in the election. RealClearPolitics Betting Average currently puts Trump’s odds at 55% and Biden’s at 16.5%.
If Biden remains in the race, BTC bulls could be energized. However, if a new candidate emerges with a chance against Trump, the report notes that the Bitcoin price performance may remain subdued.
Nonetheless, narratives and perceptions play a significant role in driving the crypto market, and if enough people believe in a Trump victory, it could positively influence the Bitcoin price.
At the time of writing, BTC regained the $56,560 level after a steep drop to $53,500 in the early hours of Friday trading.
Featured image from DALL-E, Chart from TradingView.com