The Bitcoin market has been in a state of uncertainty over the past few weeks, following its uncharacteristically negative performance in October. While the general market sentiment suggests that the end of the bull cycle might be near, the latest on-chain data indicates that the premier cryptocurrency might merely be undergoing a reset. According to a blockchain firm’s report, the recent sluggishness seems to be setting the stage for the coin’s next major move.
BTC Not In A Cycle Exhaustion Phase: XWIN
In the latest Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research Japan revealed that the current situation of Bitcoin looks less like the end of a cycle and more like a restructuring phase. The DeFi firm believes that the market foundations are being reset after the clearing out of excess leverage in recent weeks.
Supporting the claim of reduced leverage, XWIN Research highlighted that open interest in the Bitcoin future market has reduced significantly since late October. This decline in open interest signals the exit of short-term traders from their leveraged positions.
The blockchain firm noted that, in past cycle peaks, leveraged trades often increased even at high price levels. However, this euphoric buildup of market positions is not currently the case for Bitcoin, meaning that a cycle top is likely not what is being witnessed.
Source: CryptoQuant
Furthermore, XWIN Research Japan said that the Bitcoin price is currently lacking momentum and not missing structural support. The blockchain firm pinpointed declining demand from United States institutional investors—as spotlighted by the negative Coinbase Premium Index—as one of the factors behind the lack of momentum.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $101,930, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. The flagship cryptocurrency is deep in the red on the weekly timeframe, though, having suffered an 8% price decline in the last seven days.
Bitcoin Market Shows Both Strengths And Weaknesses
Despite the weakened institutional demand for BTC, XWIN Research highlighted some positive signs that could contribute to the cryptocurrency’s eventual recovery. For instance, the DeFi firm revealed that Bitcoin exchange reserves remain at multi-year lows, meaning that a limited supply is still available.
Additionally, stablecoin liquidity is gradually flowing back into the market; this means that purchasing power is also returning, and investors might just be waiting for the right time. However, XWIN Research noted that, despite the obvious market resilience, the current sentiment suggests a range-bound movement in the short term.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
