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Bitcoin

Did This Bitcoin On-Chain Metric Predict Recovery In Advance?

Keshav Verma
by Keshav Verma
1 year ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin had retested a historically relevant line right before the latest recovery had come.

Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR Retested The 1.0 Level Prior To Recovery

When Bitcoin was declining, the cryptocurrency had dropped to a low of $60,600, which appears to have been the bottom, at least so far, given that the coin has rebounded sharply since hitting the mark.

Around the time of BTC’s recent low prices, an analyst had pointed out in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post that the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) had plunged to a value of 1 alongside the asset’s drop.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Surges Back Above $67,000 As Buyers Return On Coinbase

The aSOPR is an on-chain indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors realize a net profit or loss with their current selling.

This metric works by going through the blockchain history of each coin being transferred currently to check what price it was moved at before this. If the last price was greater than the current price, the coin’s sale would realize a loss; otherwise, it would count under profit-taking.

The aSOPR can only say this, of course, with the assumption that both of these transactions involved a change of hands for the coin in question (that is, selling/buying took place).

As for why the aSOPR has “Adjusted” in its name, this version of the SOPR metric has been adjusted to exclude coins that transferred within only an hour of their previous transaction.

Such transfers are usually essentially noise for the indicator as they don’t pose any greater consequence for the market, hence why they aren’t taken into account.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin aSOPR over the past few years:

Bitcoin aSOPR

The value of the metric seems to have plunged in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin aSOPR had surged to very high levels as the coin had set its new all-time high beyond the $73,000 level. This means that the transactions being made on the network were profit-heavy on average.

With the price drawdown, though, loss-taking also started taking hold as the aSOPR retreated toward the 1.0 level. At this value, the market as a whole is just breaking even on its selling.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See “More Pullback Than We Think,” Quant Explains Why

“When positions are stopped out or panic selling is sufficient, we anticipate the market nearing its local bottom,” notes the quant. This pattern is also visible in the chart, as major bottoms have formed when loss-taking has been dominant.

The 1.0 level itself, however, has been a point where the cryptocurrency has sometimes found rebounds. The most recent example of this trend would be the low back in January, which formed when the aSOPR retested this mark.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,000, up 5% in the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like BTC has sharply rebounded in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from André François McKenzie on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

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Keshav is a Physics graduate who has been employed as a writer with Bitcoinist since June 2021. He is passionate about writing and through the years, he has gained experience working in a variety of niches. Keshav holds an active interest in the cryptocurrency market, with on-chain analysis being an area he particularly likes to research and write about.

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