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Crypto

Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle May Now Be Over, Bitwise CIO Says

Semilore Faleti
by Semilore Faleti
7 months ago
·
Posted in Crypto News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Following a rather explosive Q4 2024, the crypto bull run has entered a consolidation phase as seen over the past two months. As investors remain watchful of the market’s next move, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has boldly postulated that the traditional crypto four-year cycle may be over, suggesting the nascent industry is on the brink of a new era.

Related Reading: Arkansas Rejects Bitcoin Mining Crackdown Near Military Facilities

Can Trump Administration Make The Difference?

In a recent post on X, Matt Hougan provided a deep insight into the crypto market cycle highlighting a certain factor that might potentially positively improve this rhythm. For context, the digital asset market has historically operated on a four-year cycle consisting of three consecutive years of significant gains followed by a major price pullback.

In studying recent years, Hougan explains the cycle is always ignited by a positive catalyst that attracts investors to the market. As the bull run proceeds with soaring prices across assets, investors become greedy leading to leveraging overaccumulation eventually forcing a major market downturn.

Certain times, this downturn can be due to black swan events such as the fall of the Mt. Gox exchange in 2014. However, following this painful, deleveraging experience, there is usually another bullish event to kick-start a new cycle.

The current bull cycle comes off the back of substantial deleveraging due to the collapse of several crypto firms in 2022 including Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Celsius, and the popular FTX exchange among others. The Bitwise CIO further postulates that Grayscale’s historic legal victory over the SEC served as the market catalyst signaling the eventual introduction of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

Going by previous bull cycles, investors should be gearing up for a major price pullback in 2026 i.e. the crypto winter. However, Hougan believes the recent change in US government policy on crypto can have a strong influence over market cycles moving forward. 

Following Donald Trump’s inauguration two weeks ago, the Republican has swiftly moved to push his pro-crypto agenda. This is indicated by the Crypto Executive Order which refers to these assets as “national priority” while directing inquisition into a potential “national stockpile”.

Hougan states the US government’s new embrace of crypto will be copied by mainstream companies and traditional financial institutions, most of which don’t operate based on the conventional market cycle. Furthermore, the government will likely take a year to create an efficient regulatory crypto framework, while industry giants also prepare a market entry strategy. 

Therefore, mainstream digital asset adoption may begin in 2026 reducing the potential of a crypto winter. The Bitwise CIO warns that while classic deleveraging may still occur due to investors’ greed or market bad actors, this projected institutional demand will likely prevent the significant downturns seen in previous cycles.

Related Reading: While $DOGE and $SHIB Dip, This $8.8M Meme Coin Presale Is Stealing the Spotlight

Crypto Market Overview 

The total digital asset market cap is currently valued at $3.42 trillion following a 2.39% in the past day.

crypto
Total crypto market cap valued at $3.34 trillion | Source: TOTAL chart on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Semilore Faleti

Semilore Faleti

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Semilore Faleti works as a crypto-journalist at Bitconist, providing the latest updates on blockchain developments, crypto regulations, and the DeFi ecosystem. He is a strong crypto enthusiast passionate about covering the growing footprint of blockchain technology in the financial world.

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