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bitcoin bottom base

This Flawless “Base-Building” Bitcoin Signal Says The Bottom Is In

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
by Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
1 year ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

As Bitcoin price approaches $40,000 per coin and higher, sidelined market participants and even crypto bears will at some point start to consider that the bottom is in.

A signal has since appeared that is currently flawless at picking out when BTCUSD has built a strong enough base. Each time after moving away from this so-called “base,” Bitcoin blasted off to a massive bull run. Let’s take a closer look.

Bitcoin Production Cost Gives BTC A Base For Liftoff

Bitcoin price is trading at $37,000 per coin, up more than double from lows set one year ago. Yet there are plenty of cryptocurrency investors who are fully expecting to see BTC at $10,000 or less in the near future.

At some point, these investors will be right, or have to change their stance. However, a fundamental signal has reappeared that has a perfect track record as picking out when the bottom is officially in.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Model That Predicted $60K Peak, Now Points To $732K Next

The signal is Bitcoin price rising above the Production Cost tool created by BTC fundamental expert Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments. BTCUSD rising above the “Total” metric has always resulted in a massive bull market.

bitcoin base bottom

A base is being formed | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

BTUSD Base-Building: The Data Behind The Bull Run

The first seen on the chart below occurred in 2017 prior to a 1,400% price increase. In 2019, however, BTCUSD tapped out with only 180% over the total metric. In 2020, BTCUSD pushed above it and saw another bullish impulse with a more substantial 370% gain.

Related Reading: Why Bitcoin ATHs In December Could Be A “Sure Thing”

The average of these three rallies results in a potential 650% increase. This puts Bitcoin closer to $300,000 per coin, which feels unrealistic. The median of the measurements is the 370% increase, which would put BTCUSD at a much more reasonable $175,000 per coin. Even on the lowest end of entries, a 180% from current levels would put the top cryptocurrency by market cap just above $100,000 per BTC.

Importantly, price action spent the longest time ever below Production Cost. Could this mean an even bigger base to launch the next bull market from? Only time will tell.

This content originally appeared in Issue 28 of CoinChartist VIP. Check out the rest of the issue here.

Satoshi Nakamoto Calls The Bottom Decades In Advance?

Don’t believe it is possible that Bitcoin has bottomed above the Production Cost metric? Even Satoshi Nakamoto noticed this behavior in commodity-like assets.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Versus M1 Money Supply: The Most Bullish Chart Yet

“The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price,” Nakamoto is quoted as saying.

With a flawless track record in Bitcoin and a logical explanation for why this might occur, those unsure about what to do or expecting new lows might want to take note.

From Issue 28: #Bitcoin is above the Cost of Production after the longest time ever below it

Rising above has always lead to a bull run

Cost of Production indicator created by @caprioleio pic.twitter.com/zAUc8XcE0c

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) November 26, 2023

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from Shutterstock, Charts from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, a technical analyst and Head of Research at Bitcoinist. As the founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform for crypto traders focused on technical analysis, Tony provides his expertise to help others understand and apply this methodology. He has partnered with industry leaders like Elliott Wave International and TradingView. Through his partnerships, educational resources, and leadership roles, Tony has established himself as an authority on leveraging technical analysis to trade cryptocurrencies.

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