The sluggish price action of Bitcoin has been the common feature through the first two weeks of November. Having lost its $100,000 support, all eyes are on the flagship cryptocurrency as it hovers around yet another of its key price levels — that is, $95,000. As the Bitcoin price, however, struggles to regain bullish momentum, recent on-chain data points to an occurrence with near-term bullish implications.
Could BTC Price Recovery Start In December?
In the latest Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research Japan reported that Bitcoin could soon see a definite recovery of its former highs. To lend credence to this insight, the analytics firm revealed that the stablecoin exchange reserves are continuously witnessing episodes of rapid increase.
Historically, periods of stablecoin accumulation have preceded major price expansions. As an example, the DeFi firm highlighted the July 2025 occurrence. As BTC moved sideways around $100,000 at the time, there was simultaneously an exponential growth in stablecoin liquidity. Weeks after, Bitcoin went ahead to break above the resistance it was facing, putting in price around the $110,000 range.
The same pattern was seen in mid-August to late September. After exchange reserves recorded a growth of more than $8 billion (in 30 days), Bitcoin showed very little directional momentum. However, by late September, the premier cryptocurrency went on a run to set an all-time-high of $126,000.
Within the final days of September and early October, there was also a voluminous accumulation of stablecoins — an event which also preceded Bitcoin’s upswing to its all-time-high price before its mid-October crash.
Source: CryptoQuant
Although a pattern is ostensibly in play with stablecoin accumulation being the key factor, XWIN Research explained that predicting price reactions to this change is not so easy. This is due to the inconsistencies of the Bitcoin reaction in the past. “Sometimes the reaction comes within days; other times, it takes several weeks,” the institution explained.
XWIN Research nonetheless pointed out that a macro event such as the upcoming December FOMC meeting could serve as a trigger to activate dormant liquidity. Stablecoin reserves stand at their highest levels yet in 2025 — this significant amount of liquidity could sponsor the next significant price recovery.
BTC Trades Beneath 365-Day MA — More Pain Ahead?
In another post on X, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno shared a less optimistic prognosis for the market leader. The crypto pundit reiterated that the Bitcoin price has slipped beneath its yearly moving average of $102,000.
Citing historical trends, Moreno reasoned that the Bitcoin market may be at the beginning of a bearish phase, as it is “pretty difficult to recover” from a failure of its 365-day MA.
As it stands, BTC may be targeting the $92,000 and $72,000 support levels. However, if significant demand enters into the market, reflecting a sentiment turnaround, the flagship cryptocurrency could see a miraculous reversal of its precarious situation.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth about $96,050, reflecting no signifcant movement in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
