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bitcoin, cryptocurrency, btcusd, xbtusd, btcusdt, us dollar, us dollar index, dxy
Nexo

A $14K Bitcoin Looks Inevitable As Per This Fractal

Yashu Gola by Yashu Gola
2 years ago
in Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin
0
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A string of Bitcoin technical indicators are suggesting a significant price move towards $14,000.

One of them is the Rising Wedge, a bearish pattern identified by a contracting, upward trading range. Bitcoin is growing higher inside a similar Wedge since March 2020, bouncing between its trendlines as it anticipates a breakout reversal.

The pattern is only midway, for a breakdown typically appears when the trendlines converge at an apex. That leaves Bitcoin with plenty of room to continue its upside rally, with $14,000 posing as a primary upside target. It is also because of the level’s positioning near the Wedge’s apex.

bitcoin, cryptocurrency, btcusd, xbtusd, btcusdt, us dollar, us dollar index, dxy
Bitcoin is trending inside a Rising Wedge pattern. Source: TradingView.com

Part of the reason why Bitcoin could test $14,000 is also because of the level’s historical context. Last year, the BTC/USD exchange topped just a few dollars below $14K following a 342 percent rally.

Bitcoin is rallying similarly ever since it plunged to $3,858 in mid-March earlier this year. The cryptocurrency is now trading more than 200 percent above the said level, led by fears of higher inflation, near-zero interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s open-ended quantitative easing program.

These fundamentals also support Bitcoin’s technical structure that sees its price near $14,000. A weakening US dollar, for instance, has shown an inverse correlation with the cryptocurrency.

The Fractal Inside the Bitcoin Wedge

But before Bitcoin heads to $14K, the cryptocurrency risks taking some detours to the downside.

It is because the cryptocurrency is standing atop a support level near $11,000. A higher selling pressure in the $11,700-$12,500 band has led the price lower towards the said floor. Meanwhile, a reasonable accumulation behavior near it has sent BTC/USD back upward to retest the $11,750-$12,500 range.

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That is a classic consolidation pattern, similar to the one that Bitcoin logged between April 2020 and July 2020. The period saw BTC/USD trending sideways above a support of $8,731. At the same time, the pair was targeting a breakout above $10,000-$10,500 band.

It eventually did. BTC/USD later rose to a year-to-date high near $12,500. With the pair now repeating the same fractal, the $14,000 looks like the new $12,500.

Risks

A premature breakdown reversal from the Rising Wedge pattern risks taking BTC/USD down below $11,000. That could happen due to a plentiful of reasons, but the most significant one is a rising US dollar.

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The greenback today showed signs of reversal on optimistic US manufacturing data. It means that investors anticipated the US economy to recover faster than expected from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced slump. That reduced the appetite for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin on an intraday basis.

But analysts say that the US dollar will take more time to recover after falling to its two-year low this Tuesday. Kit Juckes, head of the forex strategy at Société Générale, told the Financial Times:

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“The Fed’s aggressive monetary policy response has eroded the dollar’s yield advantage built up over a multiyear cycle of rate hikes . . . This advantage is unlikely to be restored any time soon.”

Bitcoin was trading at $11,747, down 1.48 percent as of the time of this writing.

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Yashu Gola

Yashu Gola

Globetrotter Yashu Gola has been working as a financial/crypto market journalist since 2013. He is an information technology graduate, a cryptography junkie, a filmmaking enthusiast, and an avid reader of Jon Erickson, Agatha Christie, JK Rowling, and Isaac Asimov.

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