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Bitcoin Breaks $11.8K on Jerome Powell Speech; Is Rally Sustainable?

Yashu Gola
by Yashu Gola
4 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

A Jerome Powell speech on central bank digital currencies (CBDC) was enough to decouple Bitcoin from traditional asset markets.

The benchmark cryptocurrency surged above $11,800 in the hours leading up to the Federal Reserve chairman’s cautious remarks on CBDCs at a panel organized by the International Monetary Fund. At 0900 ET Monday, BTC/USD underwent a speculative jump from $11,523 to $11,650. One hour later, when Mr. Powell started his speech, the pair rested.

The next hour, however, it resumed its short-term uptrend by adding another $150 to it. Around noon ET, Bitcoin had established an intraday high at $11,833.

bitcoin, btcusd, btcusdt, xbtusd
Bitcoin rallied ahead and around Mr. Powell’s speech on Monday. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

It was a standalone act. None of the indexes that formed a positive correlation with Bitcoin matches its ascent in early Monday hours. The S&P 500, for instance, jumped 0.90 percent after the New York opening bell but later pared all those gains to close 1.63 percent lower.

Bitcoin’s daily candle, on the other hand, logged a 2.14 percent intraday return.

Xi Jinping Vibes

The uptick in BTC/USD on Monday served as a reminiscent of a short-term upward trend in October 2019. Only that time, traders raised their bids for the pair after Xi Jinping, China’s premier, endorsed blockchain – Bitcoin’s underlying technology – in a public event.

bitcoin, btcusd, btcusdt, xbtusd
Bitcoin jumped by more than $3,000 after Mr. Jinping’s pro-blockchain statements. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

BTC/USD climbed by more than 40 percent – from $7,430 to as much as $10,540 – before succumbing to a strong selling wave that followed later. The pair crashed by more than 39 percent when the China hype faded.

An imminent correction was a word of caution among many traders as they addressed the Bitcoin rally’s size and pace. A pseudonymous one said that he’d be cautiously waiting for the crypto to hold above $11,660 before opening any new bullish positions.

“If I lose [the support], [then] I’ll be looking to short down to 11.2k,” he added.

Ivan Liljeqvist, a Sweden-based market analyst, ran a poll to understand the consensus behind the next Bitcoin move. The results came mixed, with 47.7 percent voting in favor of correction towards $11,000.

What’s Next for Bitcoin

In the short-term, Bitcoin expects to retain its positive correlation with the US stock market. The cryptocurrency’s direct relationship with the S&P 500 has been erratic, as shown in the Skew chart below. It rises and falls consecutively, but remain intact on a medium-term outlook.

bitcoin, btcusd, btcusdt, xbtusd
Bitcoin-S&P 500 correlation expects to bounce back. Source: Skew

The reason is that every market is waiting for the second coronavirus stimulus package. Once the negotiations settle – macro analysts expect a deal by the November 3 presidential election – all the riskier assets would likely surge in tandem.

Bitcoin also anticipates reaching a new yearly high as the stimulus reduces the bids for the US dollar – and even as it gives the Fed adequate tools to continue its near-zero lending rate and its infinite bond-buying program.

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Yashu Gola

Yashu Gola

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Globetrotter Yashu Gola has been working as a financial/crypto market journalist since 2013. He is an information technology graduate, a cryptography junkie, a filmmaking enthusiast, and an avid reader of Jon Erickson, Agatha Christie, JK Rowling, and Isaac Asimov.

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