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Bitcoin UTXO P/L Ratio Hits 50.2 – A 30-Point Drop Could Signal the End Of This Correction

Bitcoin UTXO P/L Ratio Hits 50.2 – A 30-Point Drop Could Signal the End Of This Correction

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
5 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment, with bulls struggling to reclaim prices above $85K and bears failing to push BTC below $80K. This indecision in the market has led to growing bearish sentiment as many investors speculate whether the bull cycle is coming to an end.

Related Reading: BTC Bearish Momentum Fades – Short Sellers Retreat As Taker Sell Volume Declines

Macroeconomic uncertainty and erratic decisions from U.S. President Trump continue to fuel market volatility, creating aggressive price swings across crypto and U.S. stock markets. Investors are now looking for key technical signals to determine Bitcoin’s next move.

According to CryptoQuant’s latest insights, the Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model is currently at 50.2. This metric measures how many recent BTC transactions are occurring at a profit versus a loss, providing insights into market sentiment and potential reversals.

With BTC trapped in a tight range, the market is at a make-or-break moment. If bulls reclaim momentum and push Bitcoin above $85K-$90K, a strong recovery rally could follow. However, if BTC drops below $80K, it could signal further downside ahead, confirming the worst fears of bearish investors.

Bitcoin Faces Continued Correction

Bitcoin’s downtrend deepened after losing the $100K level, with a confirmed bearish trend once BTC dropped below $90K. Since reaching its all-time high of $109K in January, Bitcoin has plunged over 29%, and the market shows no clear signs of recovery yet.

The ongoing trade war tensions between the U.S. and major global economies, including Europe, China, and Canada, have added to investor uncertainty. Macroeconomic instability, tight monetary policies, and rising inflation concerns have made risk assets, including crypto and stocks, more volatile.

Amid this backdrop, top analyst Axel Adler shared insights on X, highlighting that the Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model is currently at 50.2. This metric assesses how many recent Bitcoin transactions are occurring at a profit versus a loss, offering key insights into market sentiment and potential reversals.

Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model | Source: Axel Adler on X

Adler noted that if this metric drops just 30 points, it would reach historical levels where previous cycle corrections ended. This includes the July 2021 correction following China’s mining ban, which marked the end of a major downtrend before BTC recovered sharply.

Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Cycle Peak In? Historical Halving Data Suggests Upside Potential Into Late 2025

With Bitcoin hovering between $80K and $85K, investors are watching for signs of capitulation or accumulation, which could determine the next major move in the market.

BTC Price Struggles Between $85K and $82K

Bitcoin is trading between $85K and $82K, with no clear direction for the coming days. The price action remains uncertain, as bulls struggle to regain momentum, while bears fail to push BTC below $80K.

BTC testing the 200-day MA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing the 200-day MA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

A key concern for traders is that BTC is trading below the 200-day moving average (MA) at $84,200, a critical level that often dictates market trends. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim this level, the next downside target could be below $80K, potentially testing major demand zones around $78K-$75K.

However, bulls still have a chance to step in and prevent further downside. If BTC reclaims the $85K-$86K range, this could trigger a recovery rally, bringing $90K back into play. A decisive break above $90K would signal renewed strength and a potential trend reversal, shifting sentiment back toward bullish territory.

Related Reading: BTC Funding Rates Decline 9% In March – Will It Go Negative This Week?

For now, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with traders watching for a breakout in either direction. A failure to reclaim $85K could reinforce bearish pressure, while breaking above key resistance levels could pave the way for a stronger Bitcoin recovery.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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