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Bitcoin Volatility Hits Bull Cycle Low – Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Breakout

Bitcoin Volatility Hits Bull Cycle Low – Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Breakout

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
2 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin has remained in a tight consolidation range below its all-time high of $112,000 since late May, frustrating both bulls and bears. Despite multiple failed breakout attempts, BTC has held key demand zones above critical support levels, suggesting strong underlying strength. As price compresses, volatility is declining — a classic sign that a major move could be imminent.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Pattern Repeats: 30-Day Funding Rate Signals Uptrend Continuation

Top analyst Axel Adler shared fresh data indicating that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a textbook Bollinger Bands squeeze. The spread between the upper and lower bands has narrowed to just 7.7%, marking one of the tightest ranges seen throughout the current bull cycle. Historically, such compressions have preceded explosive moves in either direction. Given Bitcoin’s position above support and within a broader uptrend, the probability favors an upside breakout.

This technical setup, combined with macroeconomic tailwinds and renewed investor interest, could serve as the catalyst for BTC to finally push into price discovery. If confirmed, it would not only open the door for a run beyond $112K but also reset expectations across the crypto market. In the coming days, all eyes will be on how Bitcoin responds to this mounting pressure.

Bitcoin Consolidates As Bollinger Bands Squeeze Signals Next Move

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below its all-time high of $112,000, frustrating bulls and bears alike. Despite ongoing resistance at the top, bears have failed to drive the price below $105,000, confirming strong demand at key support levels. As the price tightens, the broader macroeconomic picture adds complexity to the outlook.

The US Congress recently passed President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” economic bill just before the July 4 deadline. The package includes tax cuts and aggressive public spending, which are expected to fuel inflation in the coming quarters. Coupled with optimistic job data, these developments are shaping investor sentiment across traditional and crypto markets.

On the technical side, Axel Adler highlighted a classic Bollinger Bands squeeze currently forming on Bitcoin’s chart. The range between the upper and lower bands has compressed to just 7.7%—one of the tightest readings seen throughout the ongoing bull cycle. This kind of volatility drop suggests energy accumulation, with the price preparing for a significant move.

Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Range | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Range | Source: Axel Adler on X

Historical patterns offer insight: of six major Bollinger Band squeezes this cycle, four resulted in immediate upside moves, and two triggered brief corrections before rallies resumed. With this precedent, Adler believes the current setup most likely foreshadows a bullish breakout, although minor consolidation beforehand is still possible.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Institutional Pressure Builds – Coinbase Premium Reveals US Whale Accumulation

BTC Price Holds Above Key Moving Averages

The 12-hour Bitcoin chart shows BTC trading at $108,892, struggling to break above the key resistance zone around $109,300. This level has acted as a rejection point multiple times since early June, confirming its strength. Despite the recent pullback, price remains above the 50 SMA ($106,442) and 100 SMA ($106,671), indicating bullish momentum is still in play.

BTC holds key demand levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC holds key demand levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Importantly, bulls have defended the $106,000–$107,000 support range several times, preventing deeper corrections and keeping BTC within a tight consolidation range. Volume has declined in recent sessions, suggesting the market is waiting for a catalyst to break out of this range. If Bitcoin closes decisively above $109,300 on strong volume, a run toward the $112,000 all-time high becomes increasingly likely.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Outflow Ratio Mirrors 2023 Accumulation – Long-Term Bullish Signal?

On the downside, a break below the 100 SMA could expose BTC to the next major support around $103,600, a key level that has held since mid-May. The 200 SMA (currently at $99,093) remains a long-term support zone that hasn’t been tested in months.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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