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Bitcoin Volatility Range Drops 50% In A Month – Compression Before Expansion?

Bitcoin Volatility Range Drops 50% In A Month – Compression Before Expansion?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
Last Updated: February 19, 2025 11:00 pm
·
Posted in Uncategorized
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is preparing for a massive move into all-time highs, with analysts speculating that this recent consolidation is merely the calm before the storm. Despite uncertainty in the short term, Bitcoin remains strong and maintains a long-term bullish structure. While price action has yet to confirm a decisive breakout, many investors are watching closely for signs of an explosive move.

Related Reading: BTC Number Of Sellers Drops To A Minimum At Current Levels – Time For BTC To ‘Move On’

CryptoQuant data shared reveals that Bitcoin’s volatility range has halved over the past month, dropping from 80% to 40%. This compression in volatility suggests that BTC is entering a phase of tight consolidation, a pattern that often precedes a significant breakout. Historically, when Bitcoin’s price movement becomes increasingly narrow, it tends to result in an aggressive move in one direction.

Bitcoin is trading below the $100K mark, facing key resistance at $98K and strong support around $94K. If the price reclaims $100K and holds above it, a massive rally into price discovery will likely follow. However, a breakdown below $94K could trigger selling pressure, leading to lower demand levels.

Bitcoin Price Signals A Potential Move

A positive view suggests that Bitcoin is preparing for a massive move into all-time highs, as speculation grows that this recent consolidation is merely the calm before the storm. BTC remains strong, maintaining a long-term bullish structure despite failing to confirm short-term direction. The market has been in a tight range for the past few weeks, with BTC trading between $94K and $100K, frustrating both bulls and bears as investors await a breakout.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler shared an analysis on X revealing that over the past month, Bitcoin’s volatility range has halved, dropping from 80% to 40%. Adler states that, in the end, this compression will lead to an aggressive move in one direction. Historically, when volatility contracts to this extent, it signals that a significant price movement is on the horizon.

Bitcoin Volatility Index | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Volatility Index | Source: Axel Adler on X

Some analysts speculate that Bitcoin will drop below the $90K level, setting new short-term lows before finding strong demand. Others expect the price to push above ATH, breaking past $109K and entering price discovery.

Related Reading: Solana Under Serious Pressure Against BTC – SOL/BTC Candle Close Is Crucial

The next major move will determine Bitcoin’s trajectory for the coming weeks, and investors are bracing for a high-volatility breakout. The market is at a tipping point, and whichever side gains control will dictate the next major trend.

Price Action: Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is trading at $96,400 after two weeks of uncertainty and selling pressure below the $100K level. Bulls must hold current prices and push above the $98K and $100K marks, which align with the 4-hour 200 EMA and MA, respectively. Reclaiming these levels as support is essential to confirming a breakout and shifting sentiment back in favor of buyers.

BTC testing crucial liquidity below $98K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing crucial liquidity below $98K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Investors are growing increasingly frustrated as price action remains indecisive, lacking clear confirmation for either a bullish breakout or a deeper correction. Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight range, with failed attempts to break higher or lower, leaving market participants in a wait-and-see mode.

If BTC manages to push above $100K and hold it as support, an aggressive rally toward new all-time highs could follow. However, failing to reclaim these levels and breaking below the $94K support could spark a wave of selling pressure, sending BTC into lower demand zones around $90K.

Related Reading: BTC Correlation With The S&P500 Drops To Zero – Will History Repeat?

The market is at a critical juncture, with compression building up. A strong move in either direction will likely dictate the next major trend. For now, bulls and bears remain in a standoff, awaiting the catalyst that will trigger Bitcoin’s next big move.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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