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Bitcoin Volatility Still Low Compared To Past Cycle: Is BTC Ready To Hit ATH In 2024?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
11 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin has surged over the past few days, sparking a shift in market sentiment as investors take notice of its renewed momentum. 

Despite the recent price gains, key data from Coinglass reveals that Bitcoin’s volatility remains notably low compared to past cycles. This unusual calm amid the surge has raised questions about whether BTC is gearing up for another major move, potentially pushing toward all-time highs (ATH) this year.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Metrics Show Market Equilibrium: Entry Opportunity Or A Sign Of Stagnation?

Historically, Bitcoin’s largest rallies have been accompanied by sharp spikes in volatility, but the current data suggests the market may be waiting for a catalyst to unleash stronger price action. Analysts are closely monitoring this trend, with some suggesting that the low volatility could indicate a period of consolidation before a significant breakout. 

As Bitcoin continues to climb, breaking through key resistance levels, traders are left wondering if this sustained, low-volatility environment will persist—or if a sudden shift could propel BTC to new heights.

A Shift In Bitcoin Price?

Bitcoin has seen a significant price surge since Tuesday, following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 50 bps interest rate cut. 

This rally has reignited optimism in the crypto market, with some investors and analysts suggesting this could mark a turning point that leads to a broader uptrend. The Federal Reserve’s decision is seen as a major factor in the recent price action, as lower interest rates tend to push investors toward riskier assets like BTC, fueling demand.

Prominent crypto analyst Daan has shared key data from Coinglass, highlighting that Bitcoin’s volatility remains relatively high for this cycle. However, when compared to previous cycles, it has yet to reach the extreme levels that typically accompany major price movements. 

Bitcoin Volatility rising but is still lower compared to 2021.
Bitcoin Volatility is rising but is still lower compared to 2021. | Source: Daan on X chart Coinglass

According to Daan, this suggests that while BTC is experiencing some volatility, the real surge could still be ahead. He believes that once the price breaks out of the consolidation range it has been in for most of 2024, volatility will increase significantly.

Related Reading: Bitcoin (BTC) Metrics Point To Local Bottom At $49,500 – Details

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut may act as the catalyst for this next phase. If BTC can maintain momentum and break through key resistance levels, the market could see a rapid acceleration in price action, potentially leading to new highs as volatility kicks in. For now, investors are watching closely to see if this consolidation phase will give way to a stronger rally.

BTC Price Testing Key Liquidity Levels

BTC testing the 1D 200 MA.
BTC testing the 1D 200 MA. | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TraidngView

Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,995 after facing a clear rejection from the daily 200 moving average (MA) at $63,977. This key indicator signals long-term strength for BTC, and reclaiming it as support could trigger a significant surge in price. 

For bulls to maintain momentum, the price must hold above the crucial $60,000 level and eventually reclaim the daily 200 MA. If BTC manages to break past this resistance and solidify support, a rapid challenge to local highs around $65,000 is expected, with the possibility of testing $69,000—the previous all-time high set during the 2021 cycle. 

Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Expected Once Price Breaks $69,500 – FOMO Likely?

However, failure to maintain the $60,000 support level could lead to a deeper correction, pushing the price down into lower demand levels. Investors are closely watching these key levels to determine the next move in Bitcoin’s price action, as holding above $60,000 remains critical to sustaining bullish momentum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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