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The anticipated unlock of Solana (SOL) tokens from the FTX estate is scheduled for March 1. According to public records, 11.2 million SOL—currently valued at an estimated $2.06 billion—will be unlocked as part of the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings involving the now-defunct crypto exchange FTX.
Why Buying Solana Now Is ‘Dangerous’
The controversy stems from prior FTX auctions that, in total, sold 41 million SOL. Of that amount, the top three buyers—Galaxy, Pantera, and Figure—are reported to have acquired their SOL at prices of $64, $95, and $102 respectively. Notable over-the-counter (OTC) traders such as Galaxy, Pantera, and Figure participated in these sales.
Now, with fresh concerns circulating about Solana’s short-term market dynamics, well-known crypto analyst RunnerXBT (@RunnerXBT) took to X to warn about potential risks. He explicitly described the forthcoming unlock as “the biggest single unlock,” adding: “Why buying SOL is dangerous.”
An in-depth look at the FTX estate unlock on March 1st shows it’ss biggest single unlock and unlocks 9.75 million SOL. The purchase price were way lower by than. Galaxy bought for $64 ($3 billion in profit), Pantera for $95 ($1 billion in profit) and Figure for $102 ($150 million in profit).
“Be very careful buying SOL dip. yes, it’s been one of top gainers/performers of this cycle, but the amount of shit thats coming up to the surface now is really badly damaging to SOL ecosystem,” RunnerXBT warns.
Although there has been debate within the crypto community about the actual market impact of this unlock—some initially labeling it a “meme” due to the portion size relative to overall supply—RunnerXBT underscores the changing sentiment around SOL’s fundamentals:
“Whilst, I myself, was saying the unlock is a meme (as the size is tiny). Given the recent turn of events, I think it actually is a big deal as now people/traders/speculators will behave differently than they would have with SOL at $250 +. The dynamic today is very different.”
Beyond the strictly numerical considerations of the upcoming unlock, the analyst also raised concerns about potential reputational damage to Solana. He referenced community unease and allegations of “scams” and questionable dealings within the Solana ecosystem, including certain issues surrounding the Javiel Milei project and allegations of insider knowledge:
“Deep Inside, as a mega SOL bull just few weeks ago, I would hope teams can go ahead and do better. Especially those involved in MILEI and other scams where team members admittedly ‘knew in advance, didn’t insider trade’ (sure buddy).”
RunnerXBT also noted the potential for notable coverage by investigative influencers: “Coffeezilla is making a piece on this and (at least) Meteora team seems to be collaborating.”
Despite his current cautionary stance, the analyst did not write off Solana’s long-term prospects. He emphasized the possibility of a renewed bullish outlook once the token unlock is absorbed, bankruptcy claims are settled, and any underlying trust issues are resolved:
“I can see SOL still being a top performer AFTER all of this passes, unlocks take place and supply gets redistributed, post FTX payouts of claims above 50k and hopefully no more crime and straight up scamming and laughing in our faces afterwards.”
At press time, SOL traded at $185.
