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Bitcoin crypto CPI July

CPI Data Release: Could Bitcoin And Crypto See An Unexpected Boost?

Jake Simmons
by Jake Simmons
2 years ago
·
Posted in Crypto News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

In the wake of today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release at 8:30 am EST (12:30 pm GMT), the Bitcoin and crypto market is poised on the edge of its seat. With traditional markets and central banks closely monitoring the inflation metrics, the ripple effects on the digital asset market could be profound.

Wall Street is bracing for the July CPI data, with expectations that both the headline and core indices will rise by 0.2% from June. This would adjust the 12-month core CPI to 4.7% from June’s 4.8%, while the headline index (YoY) is predicted to ascend to 3.3% from June’s 3.0%.

Thomas Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors took to Twitter, stating, “July CPI going to be revelatory.” He further elaborated on the potential outcomes: “If >0.3% mom = bad. If <0.2% mom = good.”

Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin Isn’t Going Away’, Says $385 Billion Wall Street Giant Carlyle Group

Remarkably, inflation is expected by most experts to pick up again in the coming months. According to the Cleveland Fed’s forecasts, the headline CPI inflation YoY is set to experience a steady climb: from the reported 3.0% in June 2023, it’s expected to rise to 3.4% in July and further to 4.1% in August. Many investors rely on the Cleveland Fed forecast.

JP Morgan’s projections also signal a re-acceleration in the US CPI, with July, August, and September expected to register at 3.33%, 3.46%, and 3.32% YoY respectively.

Could Bitcoin And Crypto Get A Surprise?

Fundstrat’s recent in-depth analysis suggests a potential positive surprise for the financial markets. “Our data science team expects Core CPI to come in at +0.15% or better MoM,” the report stated. This is notably below the consensus estimates of +0.22%. The analysts argue that the Cleveland Fed forecast is wrong because the model is a relatively simple nine variable model, leaving out crucial disinflationary catalysts.

The analysis emphasizes the outsized contribution of used cars and housing to inflation. “Many investors fret that inflation is set to pick up again… But investors overlook that used cars and housing are such outsized contributors to inflation.”

Related Reading: Bitcoin Boredom Could Continue For 6 More Months: Glassnode

This prediction is anchored in the disinflationary pressures exerted by falling used car prices and a cooling housing market. Since the end of 2019, autos and shelter have accounted for a significant 66% of core price increases. If these sectors continue their cooling trend, the overall inflation rate could be tempered.

Accordingly, if the CPI data aligns with Fundstrat’s predictions, it could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, could weaken the US dollar, providing a potential boost to Bitcoin and crypto.

Analyst “Material Indicators” highlighted the importance of liquidity in the market, especially in the lead-up to significant data releases like the CPI. “What matters between now and then is where liquidity is stacked and where it’s thin,” they noted, hinting at the potential for rapid price movements in the crypto market. The areas at $29,000 to the downside and $30,000 to the upside remain the key areas of support and resistance at this time.

Firecharts Bitcoin
Firecharts | Source: Twitter @MI_Algos

As Thomas Lee aptly put it, this release is set to be “revelatory.” Whether this revelation will be in favor of the Bitcoin and crypto bulls or bears remains to be seen. Right now, markets price an 85% chance of no rate hike at the next September meeting according to the FedWatch tool. It will be interesting to see if today’s CPI report changes that.

At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $29,565.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price ahead of CPI release, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

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Jake Simmons has been a Bitcoin enthusiast since 2016. Ever since he heard about Bitcoin, he has been studying the topic every day and trying to share his knowledge with others. His goal is to contribute to Bitcoin's financial revolution, which will replace the fiat money system. Besides BTC and crypto, Jake studied Business Informatics at a university. After graduation in 2017, he has been working in the blockchain and crypto sector. You can follow Jake on Twitter at @realJakeSimmons.

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