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Bitcoin

Exchanges Not Bleeding Bitcoin: New Glassnode Data Busts Myth

Keshav Verma
by Keshav Verma
1 year ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

The analytics firm Glassnode has revealed that exchanges haven’t been bleeding Bitcoin, at least not to the degree many previously thought.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Has Only Seen A Minimal Decrease In Recent Years

The exchange balance, a measure of the total amount of Bitcoin sitting in the wallets of centralized exchanges, has often been a hot topic in the on-chain analysis community.

Related Reading: Ethereum HODLing: Data Reveals Diamond Hands Own 78% Of Supply

Investors use these platforms for selling-related purposes, so many look at the exchange balance as a sort of reflection of the “available” trade supply of the cryptocurrency.

In recent years, an interesting pattern has emerged in this supply sitting on the exchanges, with its value observing a constant decline. This suggested that investors were continuously taking coins out, thus decreasing the asset’s potential sell supply.

The trend made some community members think Bitcoin was heading towards a supply shock. There was, however, also opposition to the idea, with questions around whether the outflows were simply a result of changing dynamics in the market rather than an apparent shift towards widespread HODLing.

Glassnode’s modification for one of its indicators may have just put the supply shock theory to bed. As the analytics firm has explained in its changelog, the Coinbase balance has been updated to include new entities.

Previously, these labels were associated with Coinbase Custody in our database. However, we have decided to discontinue this distinction as differentiation from an on-chain perspective is not always clear-cut.

The Coinbase Custody includes coins from large entities such as spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Thus, the result of this change is that the Coinbase balance has now seen a notable increase.

Bitcoin Coinbase Balance

The data for the Coinbase balance both before and after the modification | Source: Glassnode

As is visible in the chart, while the exchange balance appeared to be shooting down earlier, the modification has meant that its value has moved more or less sideways over the last few years.

In an X post, on-chain analyst Checkmate also mentioned the topic. “Exchange balances are notoriously hard to parse and monitor,” says the analyst. “They are an advanced metric valuable, only if you know what you’re doing.”

As Checkmate pointed out, the wider exchange balance chart has also looked flat in recent years.

Bitcoin Exchange Balance

How the exchange balance has changed for BTC over its history | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X

“Many folks who have been talking about endless outflows did not appreciate the Bitcoin balance held in Coinbase custody,” notes Checkmate. In March 2020, the total exchange balance was 3.146 million BTC; today, it’s 2.968 million.

Related Reading: Toncoin (TON) Whales Just Went On $342 Million Buying Spree, Data Shows

There have still been net outflows since then, but the decrease is just 178,000 BTC, which isn’t much in the grand scheme.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,700, up more than 2% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the price of the coin has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

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Keshav is a Physics graduate who has been employed as a writer with Bitcoinist since June 2021. He is passionate about writing and through the years, he has gained experience working in a variety of niches. Keshav holds an active interest in the cryptocurrency market, with on-chain analysis being an area he particularly likes to research and write about.

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