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Bitcoin Fed FOMC

Next FOMC Will Set The Stage For Bitcoin And Crypto For Entire Year

Jake Simmons
by Jake Simmons
2 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

The Bitcoin and crypto market could be headed for another sideways trend until March 22.

QCP Capital, a leading digital asset trading firm in Asia based in Singapore, has released a new market analysis related to the current macroeconomic environment, calling the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on the 22nd of this month the most important of the entire year.

As the trading firm explains, this week has been a quiet one in terms of major macro data releases. The next major economic data point will be the ADP National Employment report, a monthly report of economic data that reflects the state of nonfarm private sector employment in the United States.

More important, however, is what the Fed has been letting slip in its speeches lately. Fed officials have consistently talked about a prolonged interest rate hike, with some even commenting on the difficulty of achieving a soft landing.

Therefore, according to QCP, the March 22 meeting will be trend-setting for the entire year, as market participants will see where the Fed will place the terminal rate in 2023 and whether the Fed plans to cut rates in 2024. The trading firm is thus referencing the so-called dot plot.

4/ We believe this month’s FOMC (22 Mar) will set the stage for the rest of the year as market participants will be able to see where the Fed sees the terminal rate in 2023, and if the Fed sees cuts in 2024.

— QCP Capital (@QCPCapital) March 3, 2023

This tool, officially called the Policy Path Chart, is published by the Fed four times a year, in March, June, September and December, following meetings of the 16-member FOMC. It will show to what level and for how long the Fed’s “higher for longer” strategy might extend.

DXY To Remain As Main Indicator For Bitcoin And Crypto

According to QCP, the dollar index (DXY) will continue to lead the way for the Bitcoin and crypto market. The dollar’s weakness earlier this week was due to China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which reached 52.6 points. “With this, the China reopening narrative has reawakened,” which has caused Bitcoin prices to rise.

Related Reading: These Crypto Firms Have Decided To Cut Ties With Silvergate

In the longer term, however, QCP expects the DXY to rise, which should put pressure on the prices of risk assets like Bitcoin due to the inverted correlation. There are three reasons for this, according to the trading firm:

Firstly, yield curves have been shifting higher as markets continually price in a higher terminal for longer.

Secondly, global liquidity is tightening again as the PBoC and BoJ reduce liquidity injections, and will continue to decrease as central banks continue their fight against inflation.

The third reason is that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 is creeping up despite rising real yields. “A violent correction is on the books if these two measures continue to diverge,” suggests QCP Capital.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Hits Equity-Driven “Roadblock,” Here’s What Happens When It’s Broken

Thus, the DXY and the S&P 500 are likely to be the biggest arguments for the return of a bear market, along with the crypto-intrinsic risks with Silvergate bank.

In terms of the volatility curve, QCP is currently observing that it is much flatter than previous sell-offs, suggesting that the market expects a sideways trading environment in the medium term.

At these vol levels, we are positioning long vega in anticipation of some volatility as we head towards FOMC at the end of the month.

At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $22,346, still digesting the crash during the opening trading hour in Hong Kong.

Bitcoin price BTC USD
Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from CCN, Chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

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Jake Simmons has been a Bitcoin enthusiast since 2016. Ever since he heard about Bitcoin, he has been studying the topic every day and trying to share his knowledge with others. His goal is to contribute to Bitcoin's financial revolution, which will replace the fiat money system. Besides BTC and crypto, Jake studied Business Informatics at a university. After graduation in 2017, he has been working in the blockchain and crypto sector. You can follow Jake on Twitter at @realJakeSimmons.

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