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Polymarket

Polymarket Is “Good” But Critic Picks Out This One Big “Ethical” Problem

Dalmas Ngetich
by Dalmas Ngetich
11 months ago
·
Posted in Crypto News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Polymarket, the predictions market on Polygon, is drawing global attention. Not only is it among the most active dapps without their token, but it is also closely being monitored by pollsters tracking the ongoing presidential campaign in the United States.

In the hotly contested campaign, the current vice president, Kamala Harris, is battling with Donald Trump. The former president lost to Joe Biden in 2020 but now wants to take over.

Is Polymarket Misleading Punters?

Looking at Polymarket, Trump has extended his lead over the past few days. Punters place the probability of Donald Trump winning at 61% versus 39% for Harris.

Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris | Source: Polymarket
Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris | Source: Polymarket

Interestingly, the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market has an overall volume of over $2 billion. As big as this may appear, one analyst thinks Polymarket is misleading people and doesn’t want to reveal the true open interest.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Watch: Which Crypto Exchange Does Big Money Prefer?

Open interest is the total number of outstanding contracts in Polymarket’s numerous markets. This metric is used as a gauge to measure liquidity and interest.

By the analyst’s estimation, its open interest stands at around $200 million, rising from around $100 million in the past 30 days. Cycling over to DeFiLlama, the portal has a total value locked (TVL) of just $211 million—and this is what the dapps manage, including all other active markets.

Polymarket TVL | Source: DeFiLlama
Polymarket TVL | Source: DeFiLlama

This figure is far less than the $2 billion in volume the Presidential Election Winner 2024 posts as of October 18. At over $211 million, the Polymarket TVL is at near all-time highs, rising from less than $50 million in April. Despite this rapid growth, the prediction market’s liquidity is not as deep as expected.

Transparency Questions Emerge

The analyst who pointed out this discrepancy is blasting Polymarket developers for fronting volume rather than open interest, saying it is unethical. This highlight points to a possible low emphasis on transparency that may, in the end, make it difficult for users to manage risks when placing bets on Polymarket accurately.

Related Reading: SEC Files Form C In Ripple Lawsuit: Here’s What They Appeal

Americans will go to the polls on November 4 and choose their next president now that Joe Biden is stepping down. Afterward, the largest Polymarket market running on Polygon will close down, and rewards will be distributed depending on who wins.

Polygon price moving sideways on the daily chart | Source: POLUSDT on Binance, TradingView
Polygon price moving sideways on the daily chart | Source: POLUSDT on Binance, TradingView

So far, a punter, “markitzero” backing Harris to win has over 4.5million shares and is in red. Meanwhile, a Trump supporter, “Fredi9999” controls over 20.2 market shares and is currently in the money.

Feature image from Flickr, chart from TradingView
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Dalmas Ngetich

Dalmas Ngetich

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Dalmas is an experienced journalist with over a decade in Forex, general finance, technology, and blockchain developments. He is currently a crypto reporter for Bitcoinist, where he covers DeFi, blockchain, DeFi, and latest industry news. His work and that of his partners have been featured in top news outlets, including Forbes, investing.com, CoinTelegraph, and Entrepreneur, among others. He is passionate about technology and politics and is always on the lookout for the latest trends in these fields. He also loves spending time with his family and friends, exploring nature, and traveling to new places. Connect on X: @Dalmas_Ngetich, or message him directly on Telegram here: @Dalmas_Ngetich.

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