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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Makes History By Crossing $126,000: Options Market Forecasts Next Price Targets
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Makes History By Crossing $126,000: Options Market Forecasts Next Price Targets
bitcoin chart

When In Doubt, Zoom Out: The Most Reassuring Bitcoin Chart You’ll See

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
by Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
2 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin price is on the ropes after failing to make it above $30,000. The market is still fearful after a year long downtrend and 78% drop. 

However, as the old adage states, “when in doubt, zoom out.” In this latest look at BTCUSD, one curved median is all the reassurance needed to know that the top cryptocurrency is still on the right track long term. 

Zooming Out To Look At Long-Term Logarithmic Growth

Assets of any kind are measured in growth of price and time. Growth can be exponential or logarithmic. 

Exponential growth is fast and substantial, commonly associated with compound interest in finance. Growth begins slow, then sharply increases. The stock market in linear scale is a good example of what exponential growth looks like. 

stock market exponential growth

Exponential growth in the Dow Jones Industrial Average | DJI on TradingView.com

Meanwhile, Bitcoin growth is logarithmic, which begins fast then slowly decreases over time. Wikipedia says that in computer algorithms, log growth is a “very desirable” indication of efficiency.

Related Reading: Bullish or Bearish? Analyzing Bitcoin’s Future Using Elliott Wave Principle

In an example from MatcMath, log growth is explained via how children learn words faster at a younger age. Eventually they learn words at a much slower rate as they reach adulthood.

The chart below shows exactly how Bitcoin price climbed rapidly to start, and is now experiencing less and less growth over time. Despite growth slowing, it never stops.

 

bitcoin chart log growth

The log growth line could work as a mean for Bitcoin price | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Price And Reversion To The Mean

The above chart includes the entire history of BTCUSD price action since it began trading. 

Its trajectory clearly follows the long term growth of Bitcoin over time, with massive volatility in between. However, since growth itself is slowing over time, so is volatility. This is why the top crypto asset more than likely bottomed after only a 78% drawdown, versus 84% and higher in the past. 

Not only does this suggest Bitcoin is nowhere near done growing, using the log growth curve as a median, it’s possible to effectively use it as a mean reversion tool. 

Related Reading: Bitcoin To Reach $161,800, According To Fibonacci Extension, Elliott Wave Theory

Mean reversion strategies involve buying low below the mean, and selling high above the mean. Using that strategy alone has historically been successful. This also puts BTCUSD square in the buy zone but potentially preparing an exit.

Dramatic new lows would mean the end of logarithmic growth in Bitcoin. Which is why the chart the chart is so reassuring.

An example of log growth superimposed over #Bitcoin to highlight the long term trend

Sell above the mean, buy below it

A high timeframe statistical tool based on standard deviations can provide further confirmation of key turning points, entries, or exits pic.twitter.com/fLPCPaDcng

— Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) May 17, 2023

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, a technical analyst and Head of Research at Bitcoinist. As the founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform for crypto traders focused on technical analysis, Tony provides his expertise to help others understand and apply this methodology. He has partnered with industry leaders like Elliott Wave International and TradingView. Through his partnerships, educational resources, and leadership roles, Tony has established himself as an authority on leveraging technical analysis to trade cryptocurrencies.

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