Dear trader,
4th episode of our Decadays Market Report series. The first three are available Part 1, Part2 and Part3.
How do you view your trading? Do you have a strategy? Or is it some sort of casino gamble to you? Please look carefully at the graph below. If you recognize yourself there, stop trading right now and go on reading this article.
I started this series of articles by talking about price and saying that the market was always right: “Even if the market acts irrationally, it doesn’t care about what you think. It is useless to think “the market should do this”. No, the market does what it needs to do; that’s all” I hope you remember this lesson and leave your emotions behind when you start trading.
Ten days later, I was talking about volumes and for this reason about the liquidity factor that allows to realize substantial gains. It is not uncommon to see a 50% gain in one day with some altcoins, but volumes are so low that in the end, you wouldn’t make more than a half dollar…
And then, ten days ago, I was warning you about announcements. Indeed, it’s better not to do anything than “betting” in one direction when major announcements are made. I got tricked this way on January 26th…
Now that you have graphically seen amateur performances and that you remember the first three lessons, we can tackle an important point. That point is to be able to trade profitably and live from it (with a starting capital, however). When a trader gets to work, he has a clear mind. His emotions are left behind. He gets in front of his monitors thinking rationally. In brief, don’t be emotional when you start trading. Some days you can’t, so don’t trade! Whether you are happy or sad, if you can’t get control over your emotions, do not trade! That is the most difficult thing for a trader. The day you control your emotions, your past training, and your experience won’t matter, you will be winning, though with a short training. You need to know a strategy that already works and apply it precisely without your emotions interfering. Do you already have a strategy? If the answer is yes, then either your trading is profitable and you already control your emotions, if which case these articles won’t help much. Or your trading is not profitable and you need to work on controlling your emotions, eventually by seeking the help of a psychologist. On the other hand, if the answer is no, I will give you all the tools you need in the coming weeks –or months, to help you define your strategy. This guide is so you can go from being an amateur who gets plucked by the professionals to being a pro trader yourself. Be careful, though: this path is not an easy one; for example, I spent 9 years doing math and finance in university, plus a few years of experience in the field. I nonetheless make expensive mistakes sometimes…
In the next articles, we will talk about all these tools that will help you create a strategy on your own. There will be much to learn, so be patient, and don’t be discouraged. I will teach you technical analysis in a simple way. No need for a master degree, only some work.
Today’s update on Bitcoin:
Last week, all my strategies were on standby. I was telling you “Personally, I think we entered a phase when it is better to take some vacation and let “others” kill each other.” Those who followed this advice avoided a few stressful nights and sweat. We have seen a slight rise followed by a slight fall, followed by a slight rise… In brief, -2% in ten days, nothing much to talk about. So just follow your strategy, the buying and selling signals that it gives you, and stick to it.
Today, not much has changed since last time:
I can’t give you a better advice than last time: BE PATIENT.
Those who have breakout* strategies, keep an eye on the charts. A signal can appear anytime and the risk is high for it to be strong, considering the low volumes of the past 15 days. For the others, again, be patient! Wait for your strategy to show you an entry point, or wait actually to have a strategy.
Good trading,
* Breakout strategy: this strategy will be explained in details in a future article
Yann Wahli
Manager of the Cryptocoins hedge fund
CFO of Crypto Finance Analysis Consulting
Twitter : @CFA_Consulting
