Bitcoin price is trading at around $48,500 after last night’s August monthly candle close at around $47,150. Each monthly close is especially memorable, but bulls have a chance to make this September a month to remember.
Past data from the month’s price action says that September has been historically bad for bulls, and in favor of bears. So which direction will it be next – up or down?
Bears Own The Month Of September Since The Inception Of Bitcoin
The first ever cryptocurrency is still well below its all-time high set at around $65,000 earlier this year, but September could be the month that a new record is set.
Currently, the odds are in favor of bears, who have closed 66% of all September monthly candles since the inception of Bitcoin in the red. In contrast, bulls have only closed three out of twelve green, with the current monthly candle undecided.
Bears have dominated Bitcoin all throughout history | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
In the past, the last September of any bull market has been red, which further increases the chances for a red monthly close. However, bullish technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment could all suggest otherwise.
How Bulls Can Make The Monthly Candle Close Memorable
Stacking more and more signals in favor of bears, the monthly LMACD has opened red. This is the second month that the indicator has opened red, but during the critical month of August bulls were able to keep the histogram from closing red.
This latest monthly open in the red, also comes with a bearish crossover of the two moving averages which in the past started extended bear markets.
Monthly momentum is at a critical impasse | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
September closing red and with a bearish crossover could suggest that cryptocurrencies will come crashing down again soon enough. However, a display of strength from bulls could prevent the bearish crossover, and failed bearish signals tend to release an enormous amount of bullish energy.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Pullback Resembles 1970s Gold Bullion Rull Run
For example, when TD Sequential sell setups misfire, some of the largest moves in Bitcoin bull run history have resulted. The chart above shows this at work with a highlighted 13, 8, and 9 count, all of which “perfected,” yet failed to yield bearish price action.
The Stock-to-flow model creator Plan B recently called $47,000 as a floor price in Bitcoin for August. In September, they called $43,000. However, to prevent the bearish crossover on the monthly LMACD, the top cryptocurrency must close September over $50,000 or more.
September hasn't historically been kind to #Bitcoin and has favored bears. How will this September close?
— Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) September 1, 2021
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com