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Picture of three bitcoin next to each other

Why Bitcoin Could Go Downstream in 2022 and Record More Losses

Reynaldo Marquez
by Reynaldo Marquez
3 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin kicked off 2022 nowhere where traders expected. In the step of a massive rally to the $100,000 price mark, the benchmark crypto has been moving sideways during Q4, 2021, and the first day of January.

Related Reading | Attention Lightning Developers! The HRF And Strike Set 3 Bounties Of 1BTC Each

As of press time, BTC’s price trades at $46,653 with a 1.3% loss in the daily with a seemingly increase in volatility during today’s trading session. BTC has been gravitating around the mid area of its current levels and the $50,000 zone, but quickly rejects back to the lows of this range.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC moving sideways in the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

In 2022 Bitcoin could continue going against traders’ expectations as the macro-economic outlook turns more complicated. Investment firm QCP Capital recently published a report with its yearly predictions for BTC and the entire crypto market.

Therein they claimed 2022 could be a year where retail investors no longer dominate the market in terms of ownership. As seen below, non-institutional investors could be replaced by public traded companies, hedge funds, and other institutions which already started to become more active in 2021.

In addition, QCP Capital expects MicroStrategy and other entities with Bitcoin holdings will seek yield on their BTC funds. Thus, the most logical choice for the publicly traded company is to start lending their BTC with the potential bearish implications for the market.

In our sister website NewsBTC, writer Eduardo Prospero did a deep dive on the implications of these decisions, especially coming from MicroStrategy. The software company holds over 100,000 BTC, and if it lends them, they could be used to short Bitcoin and negatively impact the market.

The Next Step For Bitcoin And The Crypto Market In 2022

Furthermore, QCP Capital believes 2022 that will see the creation of new Bitcoin-backed financial instruments, such as BTC-backed mortgages and bonds. El Salvador and its BTC Volcano bonds could be a prime example. The firm expects to see partnerships with “major TradFi institutions to create a BTC-collateral money market”.

As the crypto market matures, institutions will seek to have bigger participation and move into derivatives. The firm believes large players, such as banks and hedge funds, are already “eyeing” the Bitcoin/Ethereum options markets which will lead to:

Institutional participation typically compresses volatility. We see this in traditional macro assets where implied volatility consistently trades below realized volatility.

Thus, Bitcoin’s price could become more stable in 2022 ruling out the possibility of a massive new rally to the upside. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve will attempt to push down inflation by decreasing their asset purchases and spiking interest rates.

Related Reading | How This Ethereum “Monster” Feeds On ETH Balances Under The Radar

These measures could start kicking in as soon as Q2, 2022, and could affect U.S. bonds and risk assets, such as Bitcoin. QCP Capital said:

Nonentheless this (a tightening FED) will lead to a further bear flattening of the 2y10y rates curves (currently at 80bp), although we don’t expect it to invert anytime in 2022. This flattening will begin to cap asset prices including BTC, especially in the 2nd half of 2022.

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

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As an editor at NewsBTC, Reynaldo is an experienced journalist passionate about all things crypto. Reynaldo has interviewed key industry leaders, and created unique pieces analyzing the promise of crypto as the next frontier for an economic and social transformation of humanity. Since 2018, he has been at the forefront of the industry, closely following every major development and analyzing critical events at the heart of the crypto industry. With a keen eye for detail and an unwavering commitment to excellence, Reynaldo has been instrumental in bringing the latest news and insights to the crypto community. Outside of work, Reynaldo enjoys lifting weights and literature, which he believes gives him a unique perspective into the world of crypto. As an aspiring trader, he is always looking for new opportunities to explore and believes that crypto holds the key to unlocking the future of finance.

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