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bitcoin bounce or die RSI

Bounce Or Die: Why Capitulation In Bitcoin Could Still Be Ahead

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
by Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
3 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin price is back at the low $40,000 range, the market is extremely fearful, and there’s plenty of macro influences to be bearish over. However, that’s often the best time to buy.

For now, it might be time to wait patiently a while longer to see if an ultra important level on the RSI can hold. If it doesn’t, capitulation could be in the cards. Here’s a closer look at why that might be.

What Bitcoin Capitulation Looks Like: A History Lesson

Not only is Bitcoin trading at right around $42,000, it is also trading at a reading of 42 on the weekly Relative Strength Index.

The Relative Strength Index is a bounded technical analysis oscillator, giving readings between zero and one hundred. It was designed to signal when an asset is overbought or oversold, by reaching a reading over 70 or below 30 respectively.

Related Reading | Why Mr. Wonderful Wants To Build A Bitcoin Mine In 2022

However, other levels on the RSI are of particular importance for some assets. In the case of Bitcoin, a reading of 42 is typically a buy signal.

Less than a handful of period exist where Bitcoin traded below this level on the RSI. These instances have occurred following rounded support being established, then broken. The only time this didn’t happen was back when Bitcoin was trading below $5 per coin.

BTCUSD_2022-01-18_10-49-18

With this RSI level hold? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why This Level On The RSI Matters For Crypto

Outside of the one anomaly, a rounded false bottom is established at a reading of 42 on the RSI, and is then broken to put in a final bottom and send the RSI below the key level.

If 42 on the weekly RSI is swept once again, the crypto market might experience capitulation like the first four times the RSI plummeted below it.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Realized Losses Remain Elevated Showing Sell-Side Hasn’t Exhausted Yet

Three out of four times had previous support broken. Of the three times this has happened, the most extreme fall afterwards caused another 68% collapse. Other times was closer to 50%.

Breaking below the support level could result in a sharp reversal to new highs, meaning that despite the reason to be cautious, the outlook isn’t all negative. There is also a chance that such a reading on the Relative Strength Index produces a strong enough bounce for one more wave higher before a more painful bear market arrives. Which is why Bitcoin is ultimately at a bounce or die level for crypto bulls.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, a technical analyst and Head of Research at Bitcoinist. As the founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform for crypto traders focused on technical analysis, Tony provides his expertise to help others understand and apply this methodology. He has partnered with industry leaders like Elliott Wave International and TradingView. Through his partnerships, educational resources, and leadership roles, Tony has established himself as an authority on leveraging technical analysis to trade cryptocurrencies.

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