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Bitcoin Enters Classic Accumulation Phase As Fundamentals Outweigh Speculation – Insights

Bitcoin Enters Classic Accumulation Phase As Fundamentals Outweigh Speculation – Insights

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
5 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is now trading above short-term highs after reclaiming the $87,000 level just a few hours ago. This move signals growing strength among bulls, but a full bullish reversal will only be confirmed once higher resistance levels are broken. Global tensions remain high, with a trade war between the US and China continuing to weigh on financial markets. Despite this macro uncertainty, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing and preparing for a possible breakout.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Relative Strength Amid Uncertainty – Can BTC Outperform Equities?

Top crypto analyst Axel Adler shared fresh insights that support this view. As of today, Bitcoin’s “foundation” Realized Price (RP) continues to climb gradually, despite a small local dip since February 2025. Meanwhile, the speculative premium (measured by the MVRV ratio) is compressing, and the total annual network return fluctuates around 46%. According to Adler, these metrics align with a classic accumulation phase—when fundamentals remain strong, but sentiment lags.

This imbalance often creates conditions for the next bullish expansion. If investor confidence returns and macroeconomic conditions stabilize, Bitcoin could be poised for a major breakout. For now, all eyes are on whether BTC can hold above $87K and push toward new highs.

Bitcoin Enters Pivotal Week At Key Resistance Level

Bitcoin is now facing critical resistance after reclaiming short-term highs, and this week could prove pivotal. Following last week’s tight consolidation range, bulls are positioning for a breakout as selling pressure fades and broader markets attempt to stabilize. With Bitcoin holding above key support levels near $87,000, the tone has shifted—investors are cautiously optimistic that the worst may be behind.

Axel Adler shared a compelling on-chain breakdown supporting the bullish case. According to Adler, Bitcoin’s “foundation” Realized Price (RP) continues to rise steadily, with only a small local decrease since February 2025. Simultaneously, the speculative premium, measured by the MVRV ratio, is compressing. Combined with a stable annual network return of around 46%, this suggests Bitcoin is in a classic accumulation phase.

Bitcoin Valuation & Earnings decomposition | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Valuation & Earnings decomposition | Source: Axel Adler on X

In accumulation phases, fundamentals outpace sentiment. The imbalance often leads to explosive upside when market psychology finally catches up. Adler also points out that the local decline in YoY RP shows that coins are moving into hands with a lower cost basis—an indicator of capitulation and long-term positioning.

Currently, YoY RP stands at about 61%, implying the network continues to accumulate capital, albeit at a slower pace than during all-time highs. While new money is still flowing in, it reflects October 2024 levels—suggesting capital inflows are healthy, but patient. If sentiment shifts, Bitcoin may be ready to break out of resistance and begin a new leg upward.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Market Heats Up – Rising OI And Bullish Funding Rates Signal Optimism

BTC Holds Above Key Level: Bulls Eye $90K Breakout

Bitcoin is trading at $87,000 after reclaiming the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling renewed bullish momentum. The price is now testing the 200-day simple moving average (MA) near $88,000, a level that has acted as strong resistance in recent months. Bulls must push above this barrier to confirm strength and set the stage for a sustainable recovery.

BTC testing the 200-day MA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing the 200-day MA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

If BTC manages to break and hold above the $90,000 level, it would mark a significant technical milestone, validating a trend reversal and potentially triggering a surge toward new highs. This breakout could also draw back sidelined capital and reignite retail and institutional interest amid broader market volatility.

However, the bullish scenario hinges on follow-through. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $90K decisively, the rally may fade, and the market could re-enter a correction phase. A breakdown below $84K would put the $80K support at risk, with further downside likely if that level fails to hold.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates In Tight Range – Breakout Or Breakdown Next?

For now, BTC remains at a critical junction. The next few trading sessions will be decisive in determining whether bulls have enough strength to reclaim dominance—or whether another leg down lies ahead.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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