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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Foundation Has Changed: Cycle 4 Is Redefining Long-Term Market Trend – Here’s How

Godspower Owie
by Godspower Owie
2 hours ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

With the market recovering gradually, Bitcoin seems to have found stability above the $120,000 price mark after experiencing a pullback on Tuesday from its current all-time high. The ongoing bull market cycle continues to play out strongly compared to previous ones, and analysts believe that this cycle could be the best one yet.

A Historic Reset In Bitcoin Cycle Trend

In an insightful research shared on the social media platform X, Darkfost, a market expert and author, has delved into the long-standing Bitcoin cycle trend. Following his investigation, the expert highlighted a potential shift in the current bull market cycle, which is flagged as cycle 4, from the past ones.

Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 2021 Playbook Shows The Final Price Target For This Bull Cycle

Currently, Bitcoin’s fourth cycle is unfolding unlike any before it, raising the question of whether this could be the first truly different cycle. These shifting dynamics are “rewriting the rules” of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, paving the way for a development trajectory that is more sustainable but also possibly even more explosive.

According to the market expert, several crypto analysts predict that the market will experience a -80% to -90% bearish phase as seen in the past. However, certain data suggest a different scenario could unfold in this current cycle. Such development implies that BTC is being built on new foundations of institutional adoption, regulated ETFs, and deep market maturity. 

Bitcoin
BTC cycle 4 exhibiting a distinct trend | Source: Chart from Darkfost on X

Darkfost highlighted that Bitcoin is changing in front of investors and throughout this cycle. In the meantime, the expert has outlined two key and closely connected phenomena, which include drawdowns and volatility.

In the ongoing bull market cycle, there has been a correction in BTC’s price, exceeding 28% during its bullish phase. Overall, the most drawdowns recorded in this fourth cycle have stayed within a 10% to 20% range. 

In contrast, there were several instances of drawdowns of almost 50% between 2020 and 2022. Meanwhile, data reveal that only four corrections have gone beyond 25%, making this cycle the least volatile to date. As a result, the volatility of Bitcoin is at its lowest level, except during the last bear market. 

Less Violent Corrections And Rallies This Cycle

The low volatility clearly explains why there have been fewer violent corrections and rallies in this cycle. As volatility declines, Darkfost noted that the standard deviation of Bollinger Bands continues to tighten over time, which is indicative of their growing stability.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Turns Positive As Futures Open Interest Rises Sharply – More Price Growth?

Considering this new trend, the expert believes that this cycle is already different in both its structure and dynamics, moving away from the early BTC cycle pattern. A wave of different players often triggers a shift in a cycle trend.

This is evidenced by the rising adoption, increasing favorable regulatory landscape, and shifting investor base, which have highly contributed to the ongoing shift. Large treasuries and institutional players have entered the market, particularly in the United States, and new whales are absorbing the selling pressure from older ones.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $121,288 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Godspower Owie

Godspower Owie

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Godspower Owie is my name, and I work for the news platforms NewsBTC and Bitcoinist. I sometimes like to think of myself as an explorer since I enjoy exploring new places, learning new things, especially valuable ones, and meeting new people who have an impact on my life, no matter how small. I value my family, friends, career, and time. Really, those are most likely the most significant aspects of every person's existence. Not illusions, but dreams are what I pursue.

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