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Bitcoin Funding Rate Turns Negative: Bullish Signal In Disguise?

Bitcoin Funding Rate Turns Negative: Bullish Signal In Disguise?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
4 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

After plunging over 30% from its all-time high and briefly dropping below $75,000, Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery. The broader crypto market rebounded sharply this week, helped by a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump for all countries except China, which remains under a 125% tariff. This unexpected shift in trade policy helped ease some macroeconomic pressure and sparked a wave of optimism across global markets.

Related Reading: Over 85% Of Bitcoin Holders Still In Profit Despite Tariff-Driven Correction – Resilience On Display

Bitcoin’s bounce from the lows has renewed confidence among bulls who believe the worst of the correction may be over. While volatility remains high, some on-chain signals are now pointing to a potential bottom formation.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler shared a compelling chart on X, highlighting the Bitcoin Futures Perpetual Funding Rate. Since BTC hit its ATH, the 7-day moving average of the Funding Rate has been trending downward—a key stress signal in bull markets. Adler explains that when this average turns negative, it often reflects rising market tension as traders aggressively open short positions. This shift can lead to funding flipping negative, a condition historically associated with capitulation and, potentially, the start of strong recovery phases.

Bitcoin Faces Crucial Resistance As Sentiment Resets

Bitcoin remains strong after reclaiming the $80,000 level, signaling that the worst of the recent correction may be behind. However, global economic instability continues to weigh heavily on market sentiment. US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies—especially the ongoing trade conflict with China—have added uncertainty to the financial environment, fueling fears of a broader global recession. The recent 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs has offered some relief, but it’s temporary, and investors remain cautious until a more permanent resolution is reached.

Adler shared essential insights highlighting how the Bitcoin Futures Perpetual Funding Rate has behaved throughout the current cycle. Following the all-time high near $72K, the average Funding Rate steadily declined—mirroring the pattern seen in previous cycles. Just like last time, the metric dipped into negative territory, which historically has marked a reset in market sentiment and preceded a new upward move.

Bitcoin Futures Perpetual Funding Rate | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Futures Perpetual Funding Rate | Source: Axel Adler on X

Adler points out that this is less about exact statistics and more about the psychology of market participants. Confidence peaks at highs and collapses during corrections, only to rebuild when traders are forced out and the market “resets.” His chart, featuring blue arrows, shows how these cycles tend to repeat, offering hope that Bitcoin could be primed for another impulse higher.

Related Reading: From Bitcoin China Ban To Global Trade Tensions – Why BTC Is Stronger This Time

Price Holds Key Support as Bulls Eye 200-Day Averages

Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,200, sitting just 5% below its crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $87,100. After reclaiming the $80K level during this week’s relief rally, bulls now face the challenge of defending this ground and pushing higher to regain lost momentum.

BTC testing critical levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing critical levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

To confirm a bullish setup, BTC must hold above the $81K support zone and reclaim the $85K level, which aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). These two moving averages are widely seen as long-term trend indicators, and regaining both would mark a significant shift in sentiment.

So far, bulls have been able to absorb selling pressure, but failure to hold above the $81K–$80K zone could trigger renewed panic and send BTC back toward the $75K level—a key psychological and structural support from last week’s low.

Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Below Key Realized Price: Last Time Was March 2020 Before A Rally

Market volatility remains high amid macroeconomic uncertainty, and while Bitcoin shows signs of strength, it’s still vulnerable to downside risk if buyers don’t maintain momentum. The coming days will be critical as traders watch for a breakout above the 200-day EMA or a breakdown toward lower demand.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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