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Bitcoin Funding Rates Decline 9% In March – Will It Go Negative This Week?

Bitcoin Funding Rates Decline 9% In March – Will It Go Negative This Week?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
6 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face strong resistance below the $85K mark, with volatility and fear dominating market sentiment. After losing the critical $90K level, BTC experienced a sharp decline, briefly dropping below the $80K mark last week. Bulls have since attempted to stabilize the price, but selling pressure remains high, preventing any sustained recovery.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Market Shows Bullish Bias – Heavy Put Positions Signal Caution, Volatility Ahead

CryptoQuant data reveals that the average Funding Rate SMA (30) has decreased by 9% since the beginning of March. This trend indicates that negative sentiment continues to dominate as traders increasingly bet on further downside. A declining funding rate suggests that short positions are gaining traction, confirming the bearish speculation that has driven the market for weeks.

With BTC failing to reclaim lost ground, macro uncertainty and investor caution continue to weigh on the market. For Bitcoin to reverse its downward trend, bulls must regain control and push the price back above key resistance levels. If the bearish trend persists, BTC could face even lower levels, reinforcing concerns about the sustainability of the current cycle. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s next major move.

Bitcoin Faces Bearish Trend As Market Struggles with Uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading at its lowest levels since late 2024, adding to concerns that this cycle may not deliver the expected gains. Many investors anticipated a rapid and strong rally this year, but instead, BTC has faced persistent selling pressure. Trade war fears and macroeconomic uncertainty have heavily impacted both the crypto and stock markets, leading to a prolonged downturn across risk assets.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Distribution – Analyst Explains Why Bull Market Remains Intact

Since the start of the month, Bitcoin is down nearly 20%, and there are no clear signs of a reversal yet. The bearish trend appears to be gaining momentum as BTC continues to struggle below crucial price levels. Despite this negative sentiment, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, with ongoing institutional adoption and US President Trump’s plans for a strategic Bitcoin reserve providing potential catalysts for a recovery in the long term.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights on X, revealing that the average Funding Rate SMA (30) has decreased by 9% since early March. According to Adler, if this trend continues throughout the week, funding rates could turn negative, signaling growing bearish sentiment and increased short positioning.

Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Funding Rates vs Liquidation | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Funding Rates vs Liquidation | Source: Axel Adler on X

For Bitcoin to reverse this trend, bulls must reclaim key price levels, push BTC back above $90K, and regain momentum. Otherwise, continued negative funding rates and weak market confidence could drive further downside in the coming weeks.

BTC Trades Below Key Moving Averages As Bears Maintain Control

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $83,600, facing strong resistance at key moving averages. BTC has struggled to reclaim the 200-day moving average (MA) at $84,100 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $85,500, keeping bulls on the defensive.

BTC trading below the 200-day MA & EMA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC trading below the 200-day MA & EMA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

For BTC to regain bullish momentum, buyers must push the price above the $86,000 level and reclaim the crucial $90K mark. Breaking above these resistance levels would confirm a potential recovery phase, shifting sentiment away from the bearish outlook that has dominated the market.

Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Cycle Peak In? Historical Halving Data Suggests Upside Potential Into Late 2025

However, if BTC fails to reclaim these levels, the risk of further downside increases. Losing the $83K–$84K range could result in a breakdown below $80K, potentially triggering another wave of sell-offs. With macro uncertainty still weighing on the market, bulls need to regain control soon to prevent further losses. The next few trading sessions will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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