Bitcoin is currently trading above the $103,000 level, showing resilience after last week’s surge through major resistance zones. Bulls have regained control of price action, yet the critical hurdle remains ahead: a clean breakout above the all-time high around $109,000. Until this level is tested and cleared, the rally remains unconfirmed, and the market stays in a state of cautious optimism.
Despite the strength in price, on-chain data suggests the market hasn’t yet entered full acceleration mode. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Miner Capitulation metric has increased by 8% since the last difficulty adjustment—an early sign that miners are recovering from recent stress.
This recovery from miners indicates improving fundamentals, but the modest pace also highlights that current momentum is not yet euphoric. The market is preparing for a potential expansion phase, but confirmation will likely depend on Bitcoin’s ability to flip the $105K–$109K zone into support. Until then, investors remain focused on both price action and macro signals as the next move unfolds.
Bitcoin On-Chain Data Shows Early Recovery Signs
Bitcoin has maintained a strong and consistent uptrend for over five consecutive weeks, climbing above key resistance levels and reclaiming market confidence. After breaking through $90K and $100K with conviction, BTC is now consolidating just below its all-time high near $109K—a critical threshold that could determine the next major move. Bulls appear in control, yet market participants remain divided on what comes next.
Some analysts expect Bitcoin to surge cleanly above the $109K mark and enter price discovery, driven by improving on-chain metrics and broader investor optimism. Others, however, warn that a corrective phase could unfold before the next leg higher, especially as technical indicators approach overbought conditions and market liquidity begins to fragment across altcoins.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights that add depth to the current market narrative. According to Adler, the Bitcoin Miner Capitulation metric has risen by 8% since the most recent difficulty drop. This suggests that miners—often considered a key indicator of network health—are slowly recovering after a period of reduced profitability. However, Adler emphasizes that the metric would need to rise above 15% to signal that the market has entered a fully accelerated bullish phase.
Until such a shift materializes, the current trend remains cautiously optimistic. A confirmed breakout above $109K would likely ignite broader momentum and attract sidelined capital. On the other hand, failure to hold the $100K–$103K zone could open the door to short-term downside pressure. For now, Bitcoin stands at a pivotal point where both conviction and caution coexist.
BTC Price Consolidates Below Key Resistance
Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below the $103,600 resistance zone after a strong multi-week rally. As seen in the 4-hour chart, BTC continues to hold the $100,000 support level, forming a clear range between $100K and $103.6K. The recent pullback from the local high at $105,706 has brought the price back toward the middle of this zone, but bulls are defending the $102,000–$103,000 area well so far.
The 200-period EMA and SMA on this timeframe are both trending upward, with the EMA sitting around $94,290 and the SMA near $92,341. This shows that overall momentum remains bullish despite the current pause. Volume has declined slightly during this sideways movement, indicating consolidation rather than distribution.
To resume the uptrend, Bitcoin must break and close decisively above $103,600, a level that has acted as resistance in recent sessions. If that occurs, the door opens for a retest of the all-time high at $109,000. On the downside, failure to hold above $100,000 could lead to a correction toward the $95,000 zone, which coincides with the last major consolidation range and the rising moving averages. All eyes are on whether BTC can reclaim control and push toward price discovery this week.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
