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Bitcoin NUPL Points To Prolonged Bull Market Structure: Third Peak Forming?

Bitcoin NUPL Points To Prolonged Bull Market Structure: Third Peak Forming?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
3 weeks ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin reached a historic milestone today, touching $124,500 and setting a new all-time high that initially fueled hopes of a strong bullish continuation. The breakout above previous resistance levels ignited optimism among traders and investors, who saw it as a potential launchpad for the next leg of the rally. However, the euphoria was short-lived — BTC quickly retraced to $121,500, sparking debate about whether the market could be on the verge of a deeper correction.

Related Reading: Ethereum Fortune Locked Away: Early ICO Buy Now Worth Over $1B

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is behaving differently compared to past market cycles. In prior bull runs, NUPL peaks often coincided with overheated conditions and sharp reversals. This time, however, the indicator’s trajectory suggests a more gradual and measured climb, reflecting a shift toward a more evolved and institutionalized market structure. Analysts attribute this change to the increasing presence of long-term investors and the impact of US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have helped smooth volatility and reduce extreme profit-taking events.

While BTC’s long-term outlook remains bullish, the coming sessions will be crucial in determining whether this pullback is a healthy reset or the start of a broader correction. Traders are now watching both price action and NUPL trends for clues on the next decisive move.

Bitcoin NUPL Data Points to Unique Cycle Structure

According to analyst Yonsei Dent, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric remains one of the most telling on-chain indicators for assessing market sentiment and cycle positioning. NUPL measures the proportion of coins in profit versus loss.

Historically, market cycle tops have coincided with NUPL peaks. In the 2017 cycle, the metric formed a single major peak before a sharp reversal. In 2021, it produced two distinct peaks, each aligning with a wave of overheated price action and subsequent corrections.

In the current cycle, NUPL appears to be attempting a third peak, a behavior not seen in previous bull runs. Unlike past cycles characterized by sharp, singular blow-off tops, the present market is advancing in stepwise waves. Dent attributes this structural change largely to the influx of institutional capital, driven in part by the growth of US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) | Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) | Source: CryptoQuant

This institutional presence has increased the market’s size, liquidity, and stability, but has also moderated extreme percentage gains seen in prior rallies. While this environment could extend the duration of the bull market, it also suggests a reduced likelihood of short-lived, overheated surges.

In practical terms, this means the market may see longer, more sustained uptrends with shallower corrections, rather than the volatile boom-and-bust patterns of earlier cycles. Traders and investors watching NUPL closely will be looking for whether this potential third peak forms fully — and if it signals a more tempered, but prolonged, phase of Bitcoin’s growth.

Related Reading: Solana Network Sees SOL-Based TVL Surge To Multi-Year High

 Resistance Rejection At New All-Time High

On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $121,596, down 1.37% after briefly touching $124,501 — a new all-time high. This move marks another test of the $123,217 resistance level, which has acted as a ceiling for price action. The sharp rejection from above this zone suggests strong selling pressure at higher levels, at least in the short term.

BTC testing support around $121K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing support around $121K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Despite the pullback, BTC remains in a clear bullish structure, holding well above its 50 SMA ($117,395), 100 SMA ($114,833), and 200 SMA ($110,073). These moving averages are rising, reflecting strong underlying momentum. The recent surge from early August lows near $113,000 shows that bulls still control the medium-term trend.

Related Reading: USD1 Stablecoin Expands On TRON With $23M Mint After Landmark US Law

The $123K–$124K area remains the critical breakout zone to watch. A confirmed close above $124K could open the door to further gains and trigger momentum buying, potentially leading to new price discovery. On the downside, immediate support lies near $120K, followed by stronger support at $117K, where the 50 SMA aligns with previous consolidation.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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