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bitcoin

Bitcoin Reversal Soon? Polymarket Shows 100% Odds Of Fed Ending QT Before May

Ash Tiwari
by Ash Tiwari
5 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin (BTC) could soon see a trend reversal as leading prediction market platform Polymarket forecasts the US Federal Reserve (Fed) ending quantitative tightening (QT) by April 30. An end to restrictive monetary policy could provide a much-needed boost for risk-on assets like BTC.

Fed Likely To End QT Before May

Bitcoin has dropped nearly 13% over the past month due to a mix of unfavorable factors, including US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the Fed’s restrictive monetary stance.

Related Reading: Bitcoin May Receive “Unique Status” In Trump’s Crypto Reserve Plans, Report Says

Over the past two months, the leading digital asset has tumbled from an all-time high (ATH) of $109,588 on January 19 to trading in the low $80,000 range at the time of writing – wiping out more than $400 billion from its market cap.

However, the tide may soon turn for the flagship cryptocurrency. Leading prediction market platform Polymarket now projects a 100% chance that the Fed will end its restrictive monetary policy – QT – before May. Such a shift is expected to benefit risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Polymarket
Source: Polymarket

For the uninitiated, QT is a monetary policy where the central bank reduces its balance sheet by selling government bonds or letting them mature without reinvesting, effectively pulling liquidity out of the economy. For Bitcoin, this often leads to lower prices because less liquidity means less cash available for riskier assets like crypto.

QT is one of the key monetary tools the Fed uses to restrict liquidity in the economy. The other primary tool is raising short-term interest rates, which discourages borrowing and investment in riskier assets, typically leading to price corrections in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The Fed began its current QT cycle in June 2022, aiming to tighten market liquidity and combat rising inflation – a byproduct of pandemic-era stimulus measures. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows inflation has cooled to 2.8%, nearing the Fed’s long-run inflation target of 2%, suggesting that QT may have achieved its intended effect.

Q2 2025 To Be Bullish For Bitcoin?

If Polymarket’s predictions prove accurate and the Fed halts QT before May, Q2 2025 could turn bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, echoed this sentiment, recently stating that an end to QT would likely trigger a market rally.

Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $1.5 Million By 2030? ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood Says Odds Are Rising

Recent pro-Bitcoin remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have added further optimism about the cryptocurrency’s recovery potential. However, concerns persist over Bitcoin’s continued behavior as a speculative asset rather than a stable store of value.

Despite this, institutional confidence remains strong. Asset management firm ARK Invest recently invested another $80 million in BTC, reinforcing faith in the digital asset’s long-term potential. At press time, BTC trades at $83,707, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

bitcoin
BTC trades at $83,707 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Ash Tiwari

Ash Tiwari

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Ash is a seasoned freelance editor and writer with extensive experience in the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry. Over the course of his career, he has contributed to major publications, playing a key role in shaping informative, timely content related to decentralized finance (DeFi), cryptocurrency trends, and blockchain innovation. His ability to break down complex topics has allowed both seasoned professionals and newcomers to the industry to benefit from his work. Beyond these specific roles, Ash's writing expertise spans a wide array of content, including news updates, long-form analysis, and thought leadership pieces. He has helped multiple platforms maintain high editorial standards, ensuring that articles not only inform but also engage readers through clarity and in-depth research. His work reflects a deep understanding of the rapidly evolving blockchain ecosystem, making him a valuable contributor in a field where staying current is essential. In addition to his writing work, Ash has developed a strong skill set in managing content teams. He has led diverse groups of writers and researchers, overseeing the editorial process from topic selection, approval, editing, to final publication. His leadership ensured that content production was timely, accurate, and aligned with the strategic goals of the platforms he worked with. This has not only strengthened his expertise in content strategy but also honed his project management and team coordination skills. Ash's ability to combine technical expertise with editorial oversight is further bolstered by his knowledge of blockchain analysis tools such as Etherscan, Dune Analytics, and Santiment. These tools have provided him with the data necessary to create well-researched, insightful articles that offer deeper market perspectives. Whether it’s tracking the movement of digital assets or analyzing blockchain transactions, his analytical approach adds value to the content he produces, ensuring readers receive accurate and actionable information. In the realm of content creation, Ash is not limited to just cryptocurrency markets. He has demonstrated versatility in covering other emerging technologies, market trends, and digital transformation across various industries. His in-depth research, coupled with a sharp editorial eye, has made him a sought-after professional in the freelance writing community. From developing editorial calendars to managing content delivery schedules, he has honed a meticulous approach to project management that ensures timely, high-quality work delivery. Throughout his freelance career, Ash has consistently focused on improving audience engagement through well-researched, insightful, and relevant content. His ability to adapt to the evolving needs of clients, whether it's enhancing the visibility of digital platforms or producing thought-provoking pieces for a wide range of audiences, sets him apart as a dynamic force in the field of digital content creation. His contributions have helped to shape a well-rounded portfolio that showcases his versatility, technical expertise, and dedication to elevating the standards of journalism in blockchain and related sectors.

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