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Bitcoin STH Capitulation Selling Weakens: 16.8K BTC Sent To Exchanges At A Loss

Bitcoin STH Capitulation Selling Weakens: 16.8K BTC Sent To Exchanges At A Loss

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
1 month ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin surged to a fresh all-time high of $124,500 yesterday, marking another milestone in its historic 2025 run. However, the celebration was short-lived as the world’s largest cryptocurrency faced immediate selling pressure, pulling prices back and signaling the start of a new phase in market dynamics. The rally, fueled by weeks of strong buying momentum, now confronts a critical inflection point.

Related Reading: Ethereum Holds Strong as Price Absorbs Market Maker–Induced Volatility

Analysts are split on what comes next. Some believe the recent peak could mark the start of a momentum fade, with traders locking in profits after the record-setting move. Others, however, see the pullback as a healthy pause before an explosive push higher, potentially targeting levels well above $125,000 if buying strength returns.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant adds an interesting layer to the outlook. Short-term holders are currently selling at a loss, but the intensity of this selling has been weakening compared to previous corrections. This reduced pressure suggests that the market may be absorbing the supply more effectively, a factor that could limit downside risk in the short term.

Short-Term Holder Selling Pressure Weakens

According to top market analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s latest pullback revealed a notable shift in market dynamics among short-term holders (STH). During yesterday’s retracement from the $124,500 all-time high, around 16,800 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss by STH—a figure significantly lower than in previous drawdowns. Historical comparisons show that capitulation events earlier this year involved much larger selling volumes, suggesting a gradual decrease in panic-driven exits.

Bitcoin STH P&L to Exchange Sum | Source: Axel Adler
Bitcoin STH P&L to Exchange Sum | Source: Axel Adler

Adler points to a visible trend on-chain: the amplitude of STH capitulation selling, represented by blue arrows on his chart, has been shrinking over time. This decline in selling pressure reflects improved resilience among recent buyers and stronger overall market absorption. Simply put, the market is no longer reacting with the same intensity to pullbacks, a sign that short-term participants may be holding with greater conviction.

While bullish momentum has cooled following the record high, price action remains structurally strong. Bitcoin is still trading well above its major moving averages, indicating that broader market support is intact. Investors appear to be positioning for the next decisive move, whether it’s an attempt to reclaim and break above $125,000 or a period of consolidation to reset momentum.

Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Points To Prolonged Bull Market Structure: Third Peak Forming?

Bitcoin Tests Support After Rejection at Record Highs

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a volatile week, with price spiking to $124,500 before facing strong rejection near the $123,217 resistance level marked in yellow. The pullback drove BTC to retest the $118,000 area, where the 200-period SMA (red) provided notable support, halting further downside.

BTC consolidates below all-time high | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC consolidates below all-time high | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Short-term momentum indicators suggest a fragile recovery. The 50-period SMA (blue) is still above the 100-period SMA (green), indicating that the broader trend remains bullish despite recent selling pressure. However, price is now consolidating just below the $119,000 mark, reflecting market hesitation ahead of a potential retest of the highs.

Related Reading: Solana Network Sees SOL-Based TVL Surge To Multi-Year High

For bulls, reclaiming $120,000 will be key to regaining momentum and setting up another push toward the $123,000–$124,500 zone. On the downside, a clean break below $118,000 could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $116,900 and potentially $115,000.

BTC remains in an uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe, but the rejection at all-time highs and subsequent consolidation signal a cooling phase. Traders will be watching for either a breakout above resistance to confirm continuation or a loss of support that could shift sentiment more bearish in the short term.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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