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bitcoin time

Why It Isn’t (Yet) Time For A Major Bitcoin Correction

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
by Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
2 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin price is falling and within 48 hours while still fresh from local highs, crypto market sentiment has been instantly convinced of another major correction. 

According to a time-based technical analysis theory, however, the crypto market might not be due for a correction for a while longer. Here is a closer look at why. 

Time Is On Bulls’ Side

Within days of a simple 10% pullback, crypto Twitter is declaring that the bear market is back, and new lows are a guarantee. However, time is on the side of Bitcoin bulls, according to Hurst Cycle Theory. 

American engineer JM Hurst created the theory in the 1970s, and it consists of eight key principles. The list includes Commonality, Cyclicality, Summation, Harmonicity, Synchronicity, Proportionality, Nominality, and Variation. 

Related Reading: The Top 10 Reasons To Buy Bitcoin, According To ChatGPT

At its core, the theory looks for a repeating rhythm of time distance, measured from trough to trough. In the chart below, we can see that past 50% or more corrections follow a cyclical pattern. The repeating time cycles suggest that the next major trough won’t be until January 2024 the earliest. 

BTCUSD_2023-04-21_15-50-02

Short-term cyclical behavior | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Each of the major troughs date back to the last big correction in 2017. The next major trough was the 2018 bear market bottom, followed by the COVID collapse in 2020. Summer of 2021 gave us another trough and yet another arrived this past November 2022. But was it a long-term bottom?

Connecting Long-Term Bitcoin Bottoms

Not only do the shorter term cycles suggest that there won’t be any major bearish movements in the near term, larger time cycles say something similar. According to the Principle of Harmonicity, larger time cycles can be broke down into halves and thirds. 

BTCUSD_2023-04-21_15-52-08

Long-term cyclical behavior | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The smaller time cycle measured as the 1/3 harmonic takes Bitcoin price all the way back to the last several major bear market bottoms. Another one of these major cyclical troughs with significant Summation isn’t due until mid-2026. 

Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Ready For Its Most Powerful Rally In Years

Hurst Cycle Theory does require some subjectivity, so there’s no telling if the above is perfectly accurate, or if the current cyclical structure begins to change or feature more Variation. But if the drawings are accurate, it won’t be time for a bigger correction for several more months.  

https://twitter.com/tonythebullBTC/status/1590522192131162112

Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, a technical analyst and Head of Research at Bitcoinist. As the founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform for crypto traders focused on technical analysis, Tony provides his expertise to help others understand and apply this methodology. He has partnered with industry leaders like Elliott Wave International and TradingView. Through his partnerships, educational resources, and leadership roles, Tony has established himself as an authority on leveraging technical analysis to trade cryptocurrencies.

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