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Bitcoin Trades Below The Short-Term Average Cost Basis – Key Insights

Bitcoin Trades Below Short-Term Average Cost Basis – Key Insights

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
5 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin has faced massive volatility and selling pressure despite positive developments regarding the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump confirmed the establishment of the reserve by signing an Executive Order, marking a significant shift in US crypto policy. However, BTC has struggled to gain momentum, remaining below the $90,000 level since the start of the week as bears take control of short-term price action.

Related Reading: U.S. Authorities Hold 187,236 BTC – The Foundation Of A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?

The market reaction has been unexpectedly bearish, with BTC failing to capitalize on the bullish narrative surrounding the Bitcoin reserve announcement. Instead, sellers have dominated, keeping prices suppressed as uncertainty continues to drive volatility.

Key on-chain metrics from CryptoQuant reveal concerning signals—Bitcoin’s price is currently below both the Realized Price and the MVRV Short-Term Holder (STH) indicator. Historically, trading below these levels suggests that short-term holders are at a loss, often signaling weak market sentiment and a lack of strong buying pressure.

Bitcoin Price Struggles To Set A Clear Direction

Bitcoin has lost over 28% of its value since January 20, as negative sentiment surrounding macroeconomic conditions and global economic uncertainty weighs on the market. Fears of an escalating trade war and rising volatility have fueled one of Bitcoin’s most unpredictable market cycles, leaving both bulls and bears struggling for control.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized HODL Waves Signals Strong Market Confidence – Details

The crypto market remains in a delicate position, with BTC failing to reclaim key resistance levels as uncertainty dominates short-term price action. Analysts are closely watching BTC’s next move, as a break above key levels could surprise many investors who currently doubt the continuation of the bull rally. Some experts believe that BTC could still make a strong push higher, catching bearish traders off guard and forcing a short squeeze.

Top analyst Maartun shared insights on X, pointing out a crucial technical signal—Bitcoin is still trading below the Short-Term Average Cost Basis. This metric tracks the average price short-term holders paid for BTC, and when BTC trades below this level, it means many recent buyers are at a loss. Historically, this has been a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, as it often signals either a deeper correction or an imminent reversal if buying pressure returns.

Bitcoin Realized Price STH & MVRV STH | Source: Maartunn on X
Bitcoin Realized Price STH & MVRV STH | Source: Maartunn on X

With BTC hovering at critical levels, the coming days will be key in determining its next move. If Bitcoin reclaims its Short-Term Average Cost Basis, it could be the catalyst for a strong recovery. However, failure to do so may lead to further downside, extending the current bearish sentiment. Investors and traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to hold support or if more pain is ahead for short-term holders.

BTC Price Action: Technical Details

Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,000 after experiencing days of massive selling pressure and uncertainty. Despite attempts to regain momentum, BTC remains in a fragile position, with bulls struggling to reclaim key resistance levels.

BTC struggles below $90K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC struggles below $90K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The most important support to defend right now is $85,000. If BTC holds above this level in the coming days, it could set the stage for a push toward $92,000-$93,000, a critical resistance zone aligned with the 4-hour 200 Moving Average (MA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Reclaiming this area would signal renewed buying strength, potentially shifting sentiment back in favor of the bulls.

However, if Bitcoin loses the $85K support, it could trigger another wave of selling pressure, pushing BTC below the $80,000 mark. A breakdown of this magnitude could lead to increased volatility, forcing BTC into lower demand zones and delaying any meaningful recovery.

Related Reading: Ethereum Addresses Holding Over 10,000 ETH Droped To 919 In Two Weeks – Insights

With Bitcoin at a pivotal level, traders are closely watching price action to determine whether BTC can stabilize and break higher or if bears will extend the current downturn. The next few sessions will be crucial, as BTC’s ability to hold or lose $85K could define its short-term direction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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