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bitcoin M1 money supply btc

Bitcoin Versus M1 Money Supply: The Most Bullish Chart Yet

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
by Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
1 year ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin price is at roughly $37,000, gaining more than $10,000 over the last month. The BTCUSD chart is beginning to look a lot more bullish. However, the most chart you’ll ever see is the top cryptocurrency by market cap compared against the money supply. Take a look.

The Most Bullish Bitcoin Chart Of All

Bears claim Bitcoin is going back to $10,000 due to the negative macro environment. More yet are sidelined, waiting for closer to the recurring “halving” before they expect BTC to appreciate further. But it is possible that bull market is brewing, and the aforementioned market participants are in disbelief and suffering from recency bias.

Even more bullish than the standard BTCUSD chart, is BTCUSD versus the M1 money supply. In fact, it could potentially suggest that Bitcoin is about to embark on its most significant bull run since 2017.

Bitcoin versus money supply

BTC versus M1 Money Supply | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The chart above depicts a long-term primary uptrend channel beginning in 2011. Unlike the normal Bitcoin chart against the US dollar, this ratio never made a new high after 2017. Against the whole supply of money (including currency, demand deposits, and other liquid deposits), the top cryptocurrency has been in a six-year bear market. Importantly, from a technical perspective, is the fact that the price action is contained within a contracting triangle.

Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Trend Beginning Its Most Bullish Phase?

According to Elliott Wave Principle, primary trends move in five waves up. Odd numbers waves move in the primary trend direction, while odd numbered waves correct the trend. Triangles waves typically appear in the wave 4 position, or wave B during a corrective phase. Triangles themselves must be counted with five waves, labeled ABCDE. The chart above shows that same exact back and forth trading sequence, potentially leading to a thrust above the upper trend line of the pattern.

bitcoin money supply

Parabolic SAR is supporting the uptrend | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

With the channel and wave counts removed, a breakout from a downtrend line appears imminent on the 12M Bitcoin versus M1 money supply chart. This isn’t just any Bitcoin chart, but the highest timeframe possible. In technical analysis, higher timeframes always have the most significance. If the king of cryptocurrencies can make a higher high above 2017, the value of BTC compared to the supply of money could skyrocket.

The Parabolic SAR also suggests that the ratio is still in a long-term uptrend, with price action failing to tag the SAR during Black Thursday and the most recent bear market in BTCUSD. And if the USD pair has already made two all-time highs without a true breakout against the money supply, what happens to the standard BTCUSD chart once the ratio against M1 breaks out?

stock market sp 500 m1 global money supply

S&P 500 versus M1 Money Supply | SPX on TradingView.com

For comparison sake, this chart above is the S&P 500 against the same M1 money supply. Unlike BTC, which made a higher high since the massive money supply increases around COVID, the stock market has sunk to all-time lows against M1. This could be where Bitcoin’s restricted 21 million BTC supply comes into play. As the money supply increases, the supply of BTC tends to reduce, or at least stays the same.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Kisses Growing Correlation With S&P 500 Goodbye

All three charts originally appeared in Issue #26 of CoinChartist VIP, entitled “Not Bullish Enough”. Subscribe for free or upgrade to premium to view the full report. Access CoinChartist VIP for 20% off for a limited time with the Bull Market coupon code: Bullish

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from Shutterstock, Charts from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, a technical analyst and Head of Research at Bitcoinist. As the founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform for crypto traders focused on technical analysis, Tony provides his expertise to help others understand and apply this methodology. He has partnered with industry leaders like Elliott Wave International and TradingView. Through his partnerships, educational resources, and leadership roles, Tony has established himself as an authority on leveraging technical analysis to trade cryptocurrencies.

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