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Bitcoin Volume Momentum Hits Cycle Lows – Have Major Sell-Offs Finally Ended?

Bitcoin Volume Momentum Hits Cycle Lows – Have Major Sell-Offs Finally Ended?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
4 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin continues to range tightly between $88,000 and $81,000, with bulls struggling to build momentum amid a backdrop of growing uncertainty. Despite several attempts to push higher, BTC has been unable to break through resistance, and price action remains choppy and directionless. The lack of conviction reflects broader market tensions as investors grow increasingly cautious.

Related Reading: Over 30,000 Bitcoin Withdrawn From Exchanges In A Week – Institutional Accumulation Underway?

Financial markets remain unsettled, largely due to the unpredictable behavior of U.S. President Donald Trump. His recent push for new tariffs and aggressive rhetoric has added another layer of volatility to an already fragile macroeconomic environment. Risk assets like Bitcoin are feeling the weight of this uncertainty, unable to mount a sustained recovery.

Adding to the cautious tone, top analyst Axel Adler shared on-chain metrics via X, highlighting a significant drop in the Token Transfer Volume Change 90DMA indicator — a measure that tracks the smoothed percentage change in transaction volume over time. Adler noted that this metric has now fallen to its lowest levels in the current cycle, signaling a dramatic slowdown in network activity.

With transfer volume waning and price stuck in a tight range, Bitcoin now faces a pivotal moment. Whether bulls can spark a breakout or bears push lower will likely define the next phase of this cycle.

Bitcoin Struggles To Regain Momentum As Transaction Volume Hits Cycle Low

Bitcoin bulls lost control when the price surged toward $87,000 but failed to reclaim the crucial $90,000 mark. This rejection signaled a loss of momentum, and since then, selling pressure has resumed. What started as a minor upswing and wave of optimism has quickly faded, leaving Bitcoin range-bound and vulnerable to further downside.

Broader macroeconomic instability continues to weigh on risk assets. Financial markets remain tense amid ongoing uncertainty, driven by geopolitical instability and erratic policy decisions from global leaders. Bitcoin, once seen as a hedge, is now trading with a high correlation to broader market sentiment, and recent price action reflects that fragility.

Axel Adler pointed out that the Token Transfer Volume Change [%] 90DMA — the 90-day simple moving average of daily percentage changes in transaction volume — has now dropped to its lowest point in this cycle. In simpler terms, this indicator measures the average shift in on-chain activity, filtering out short-term noise. The current drop (represented as a yellow bar) suggests a sharp decline in transactional activity.

Bitcoin Token Transfer Volume Change 90DMA | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Token Transfer Volume Change 90DMA | Source: Axel Adler on X

While this may appear bearish on the surface, Adler believes it marks the end of major sell-offs. According to his analysis, current transaction volume has returned to levels observed at the beginning of this bull cycle. This could indicate that the excess has been cleared from the market, setting a more stable foundation for the next leg up.

Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Nears Key Signal – Next Major Buying Opportunity Ahead?

With bulls still struggling to reclaim momentum, this phase may act as a reset. If support holds and confidence builds, Bitcoin could be primed for another rally — but only if bulls step in to reverse the recent weakness.

Technical Details: Key Levels To Hold

Bitcoin is trading at $84,200 following a weekend selloff that pulled prices away from recent highs and reignited bearish pressure. The market remains fragile, and bulls are now focused on reclaiming the $86,500 level — a key resistance zone aligned with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). A decisive move above this level would signal renewed strength and could open the door for a broader recovery.

BTC price testing inside liquidity | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC price testing inside liquidity | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

However, momentum remains weak, and BTC has yet to show a convincing reversal. If bulls fail to push above $86,500 in the near term, selling pressure is likely to intensify. A rejection from this zone could result in Bitcoin slipping back toward key support, with the $80,000 level once again in play.

Related Reading: Taker-Driven Dumps Cool Off As Bitcoin Shows Early Signs Of Recovery – Analyst

A drop below $80K would mark a significant breakdown in structure and likely shift sentiment decisively in favor of the bears. For now, all eyes remain on BTC’s ability to reclaim the 4-hour MAs and reestablish short-term bullish momentum. The coming days may prove pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its footing — or if a deeper correction is just getting started.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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