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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Makes History By Crossing $126,000: Options Market Forecasts Next Price Targets
Bitcoin Network Quiet as a ‘Ghost Town,’ But Whales Are Making Moves: Glassnode Reports

Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Stagnates: What Does This Mean For BTC?

Samuel Edyme
by Samuel Edyme
1 year ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

The Bitcoin market has been closely analyzed by a CryptoQuant analyst named Percival, who recently provided insights into Bitcoin’s realized cap and net capital flows.

The realized cap is a metric that tracks each Bitcoin (UTXO) when it was last moved on the network, effectively representing the cost basis of all circulating coins. This metric helps to understand whether there is an inflow or outflow of net capital in the Bitcoin market.

Related Reading: Negative Funding Rates Hint at Bitcoin Price Surge—Here’s What K33 Research Predicts

Bitcoin Realized Cap Sees Stagnation

According to Percival in a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, as of now, BTC’s realized cap stands at $461 billion, reflecting a modest increase of $3 billion, or 0.66%, indicating low movement and a stagnant net capital inflow.

To understand what this stagnation means for BTC, Percival identifies three key phases of Bitcoin’s market cycles. The analyst disclosed that the realized cap stops rising during market tops, indicating a shift from profit to loss.

Long-term holders (HODLers) determine the market floor in bear market recoveries, leading to steady capital flow into BTC. Lastly, in bull market rallies, HODLers who accumulated at lower prices often take profits as the market approaches all-time highs.

Given these points, Percival mentioned that the current realized cap suggests BTC is in a recovery phase. Still, the net capital inflow, which remains stagnant, signals a cautious outlook for the near future.

The analyst reveals that Bitcoin’s realized cap shows signs of a recovery phase, characterized by the balanced capital flows between long-term holders (HODLers) and short-term investors (STH).

This phase typically indicates that the market is neither in a clear bull nor bear trend but rather in a state of equilibrium. Percival mentioned that the net capital inflows since August have been nearly non-existent, suggesting the market is in a state of liquidity neutrality.

Net Inflows and the Inflection Point in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap!

The net inflows by investors since August, now at $461B, are in a recovery phase but have seen virtually no increase. This highlights that the inflow of new capital remains stagnant. – By @p_rcival

Link 👇… pic.twitter.com/QL1qSlVMkS

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 17, 2024

This stagnation implies that the profit made by HODLers is roughly equivalent to the losses incurred by top buyers.

What Is Next?

The analyst emphasizes the need for significant Bitcoin price movement in the next 30 days to break this neutrality.

Without such movement, the market may continue to see minimal capital flow, leading to a prolonged period of consolidation.

Related Reading: Crypto Investment Flow: Bitcoin Rebounds With $436 Million Inflows As Ethereum Stumbles

A key indicator to watch in this scenario is the net realized profit, which, if it trends toward the value of 1, would indicate a balanced market, possibly setting the stage for the next significant market move.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving downwards on the 1-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradngView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Samuel Edyme

Samuel Edyme

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Edyme is a writer, a content writer that specialises in writing about the crypto realm. Asides Bitcoinist and NewsBTC, Edyme's writing has been featured in top sites such as Blockchain.News, CoinMonk, Blockchain Reporter, Bitcoin Insider among others.

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