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Crypto Warning: Arthur Hayes Foresees Short-Term Market Crash Linked To Interest Rate Cuts

Ash Tiwari
by Ash Tiwari
11 months ago
·
Posted in Crypto News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes thinks the upcoming interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could ignite a short-term crypto market crash.

Fed Is Doing A Colossal Mistake, Hayes Says

Delivering a presentation titled ‘Thoughts on Macroeconomic Current Events’, at the Token2049 event in Singapore on September 18, Hayes indicated he is not too excited about the Fed’s decision to slash interest rates. Hayes said:

I think the Fed is making a colossal mistake cutting rates at a time when the US government is printing and spending as much money as they ever have at peace time. While I think a lot of people are looking forward to a rate cut, meaning that they think the stock market and other things are going to pump up the jam, I think the markets are going to collapse a few days after the Fed’s rates.

Related Reading: Bitmex’s Arthur Hayes Predicts When The Altcoin Season Will Begin

While delivering the presentation, the serial digital assets entrepreneur pointed to a chart showing that almost 50% of the central banks in the world today are in rate-cutting mode. Hayes opined that the Fed may cut rates by 50 or 75 basis points (bps), which might narrow the interest rate differential between the US dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) and culminate in a wider market drawdown. He noted:

We saw what happened a few weeks ago when the yen went from 162 to about 142, over about 14 days of trading that caused almost a mini financial collapse,” the former BitMEX exec said, adding: “We’re going to see a revisit of that financial stress.

To add merit to his prediction, Hayes juxtaposed investing in digital currencies with holding 5%-yielding Treasury Bills (T-bills). He said that investors would much rather put their money into government-backed T-bills during market turmoil than riskier decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. Hayes stressed that income yields in many crypto assets are ‘either slightly above or below the rate of T-bills’.

However, Hayes was not entirely dismissive of holding cryptocurrencies in a declining interest rate environment. He analyzed returns generated by four cryptocurrencies, namely Ethereum (ETH), Ethena (ENA), Pendle (PENDLE), and Ondo (ONDO). Hayes emphasized that he has significant holdings in three cryptocurrencies except ONDO.

Hayes Confident In Ethereum Despite Weak Performance

Hayes said the existing high interest rate environment is having a severe impact on financial markets around the world, including crypto markets. Taking the example of Ethereum, Hayes said its staking yields of 3-4% are not attractive enough for investors to ignore T-bills yielding 5.5% without any risk whatsoever. 

Related Reading: Is It Time To Buy Bitcoin And Altcoins? Crypto Millionaire Arthur Hayes Has The Answers

Hayes went as far as calling Ethereum an ‘internet bond’, which isn’t too surprising since throughout 2024 ETH has consistently underperformed against most other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), Binance Coin (BNB), and others. 

However, Hayes added that with a rapid fall in interest rates, the prospects of an Ethereum bull market would increase. However, the attractiveness of digital assets will depend a lot on T-bills yields falling at an even greater pace. Hayes added that despite the headwinds faced by Ethereum, he still invests in it.

Hayes isn’t the only crypto enthusiast with skepticism toward interest rate cuts. Another crypto market expert recently asserted that the Fed’s decision to cut rates could lead to market sell-offs and corrections. Bitcoin trades at $59,746 at press time, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours.

bitcoin
Bitcoin trades at $59,746 on the weekly chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Ash Tiwari

Ash Tiwari

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Ash is a seasoned freelance editor and writer with extensive experience in the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry. Over the course of his career, he has contributed to major publications, playing a key role in shaping informative, timely content related to decentralized finance (DeFi), cryptocurrency trends, and blockchain innovation. His ability to break down complex topics has allowed both seasoned professionals and newcomers to the industry to benefit from his work. Beyond these specific roles, Ash's writing expertise spans a wide array of content, including news updates, long-form analysis, and thought leadership pieces. He has helped multiple platforms maintain high editorial standards, ensuring that articles not only inform but also engage readers through clarity and in-depth research. His work reflects a deep understanding of the rapidly evolving blockchain ecosystem, making him a valuable contributor in a field where staying current is essential. In addition to his writing work, Ash has developed a strong skill set in managing content teams. He has led diverse groups of writers and researchers, overseeing the editorial process from topic selection, approval, editing, to final publication. His leadership ensured that content production was timely, accurate, and aligned with the strategic goals of the platforms he worked with. This has not only strengthened his expertise in content strategy but also honed his project management and team coordination skills. Ash's ability to combine technical expertise with editorial oversight is further bolstered by his knowledge of blockchain analysis tools such as Etherscan, Dune Analytics, and Santiment. These tools have provided him with the data necessary to create well-researched, insightful articles that offer deeper market perspectives. Whether it’s tracking the movement of digital assets or analyzing blockchain transactions, his analytical approach adds value to the content he produces, ensuring readers receive accurate and actionable information. In the realm of content creation, Ash is not limited to just cryptocurrency markets. He has demonstrated versatility in covering other emerging technologies, market trends, and digital transformation across various industries. His in-depth research, coupled with a sharp editorial eye, has made him a sought-after professional in the freelance writing community. From developing editorial calendars to managing content delivery schedules, he has honed a meticulous approach to project management that ensures timely, high-quality work delivery. Throughout his freelance career, Ash has consistently focused on improving audience engagement through well-researched, insightful, and relevant content. His ability to adapt to the evolving needs of clients, whether it's enhancing the visibility of digital platforms or producing thought-provoking pieces for a wide range of audiences, sets him apart as a dynamic force in the field of digital content creation. His contributions have helped to shape a well-rounded portfolio that showcases his versatility, technical expertise, and dedication to elevating the standards of journalism in blockchain and related sectors.

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