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Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Show Signs Of Stress – A Buy Opportunity For Long-Term Investors?

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Show Signs Of Stress – A Buy Opportunity For Long-Term Investors?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
6 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading below the $85,000 mark, raising concerns that further downside could follow if bulls fail to reclaim this key level. The market remains under intense selling pressure, with uncertainty weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

Related Reading: $90K Emerges As Bitcoin Psychological Battleground – Key Level Dictates Market Sentiment

Since the U.S. elections in November 2024, macroeconomic uncertainty and increased volatility have driven both the crypto and stock markets lower. The lack of stability and growing fears of a prolonged risk-off environment have left Bitcoin struggling to regain momentum, with bulls unable to push BTC back above crucial resistance levels.

CryptoQuant insights reveal that the current stress level among short-term holders (STH) is within the normal range for this cycle. The STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is currently at 0.96, indicating that many short-term holders are selling at a loss as BTC remains in a post-all-time-high (ATH) distribution phase.

For BTC to avoid further declines, bulls must reclaim the $85K level quickly and regain market confidence. If they fail, the market could see increased selling pressure and lower price targets in the near term.

Bitcoin Faces Mounting Fear

As Bitcoin and global markets continue to struggle for a recovery, speculation dominates investor sentiment. Fears of a global trade war and volatile macroeconomic conditions have sent both the crypto and U.S. stock markets to their lowest levels in months, leaving traders uncertain about what’s next.

Bitcoin is now trading at its lowest levels since November 10, 2024, and bulls appear to have a long road ahead to regain control. BTC has been in a consistent downtrend since late January, and as bearish sentiment intensifies, investors continue setting lower targets, with many now questioning whether the Bitcoin bull cycle is over.

Despite the widespread uncertainty, top analyst Axel Adler shared key insights suggesting that Bitcoin’s current stress levels remain within a normal range for this cycle. According to CryptoQuant data, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) is at 0.96, indicating that many short-term holders are selling at a loss. Bitcoin is currently in a post-all-time-high (ATH) distribution phase, a period that typically results in high volatility and indecision.

Bitcoin short-term holders SOPR | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin short-term holders SOPR | Source: Axel Adler on X

Adler points out that fear among short-term holders can often be a key indicator of extreme seller exhaustion, which in the past has created buying opportunities for long-term investors. While BTC remains under pressure, history suggests that periods of intense fear and capitulation often set the stage for strong recoveries once selling pressure subsides.

Related Reading: Global Liquidity Is Expanding Fast – Will Bitcoin React Like in Past Cycles?

For now, Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory remains uncertain, and bulls must reclaim key levels to restore market confidence. The next few weeks will be crucial, as traders watch for signs of stabilization or deeper corrections in the crypto market.

Bulls Struggles To Reclaim Key Levels Above $85K

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $82,700, following several days of selling pressure that has kept it below the crucial $85K mark. The market remains under bearish control, and BTC has yet to show signs of a recovery, with bulls struggling to establish strong support.

BTC trading below the 200-day MA & EMA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC trading below the 200-day MA & EMA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

For BTC to regain momentum, bulls must reclaim the $83K–$85K range, as this level aligns with the daily 200-moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). A break and hold above this zone would indicate renewed buying interest, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal.

However, if BTC fails to reclaim the 200-day MA and EMA in the coming days, selling pressure could intensify, leading to a massive drop below $80K. A break below this psychological level could trigger further liquidations, pushing BTC toward lower demand zones and extending its bearish trajectory.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Grows But On-Chain Activity Shifts To Ethereum And L1 Networks – Insights

With market sentiment still weak, the next few trading sessions will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can recover or if another wave of sell-offs will drive it lower. Bulls must act quickly, or BTC may face further downside risks in the short term.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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