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Bitcoin

When Will Bitcoin Recover? Top Analyst Says This

Keshav Verma
by Keshav Verma
1 year ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

An analyst explained that Bitcoin has historically seen recovery from bearish phases like the one the cryptocurrency is going through.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Show Miner Capitulation Is Ongoing

In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has discussed the relevance of the Bitcoin hashrate to the asset’s price recovery. The “hashrate” refers to a measure of the total computing power the miners have currently connected to the network.

The trend in this metric can be viewed as a representation of the situation among these chain validators. When the indicator rises, it suggests that miners are finding the chain attractive to mine on right now.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Remains Negative: What It Means

On the other hand, a decline in the metric implies some miners have decided to disconnect from the network, potentially because they are currently finding it unprofitable to mine BTC.

One way to gauge whether either of these behaviors is any sustained trend can be through the “hash ribbons.” This indicator compares a short-term moving average (MA) of the hashrate against a long-term one.

When the former falls below the latter, the miners capitulate en masse. Similarly, a crossover of the reverse type suggests capitulation among this cohort has ended.

Now, how do the hash ribbons relate to the asset’s price? As Woo notes, Bitcoin shows recovery when “weak miners die and hash rate recovers.” This corresponds to the phase of the market where capitulation has finished.

Below is the chart for the hash ribbons shared by the analyst that shows how the miner situation is looking right now.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons

The data for the BTC hash ribbons over the past several years | Source: @woonomic on X

As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin hash ribbons signal that the miners are going through capitulation. The reason behind this poor situation of the miners lies in the Halving event that went through back in April.

Halvings are periodic events that occur every four years and slash the block rewards of the network permanently in half. The block rewards here naturally refer to the rewards miners receive as compensation for solving blocks on the chain.

These rewards make up the major part of the revenue of this cohort, so their being cut in half can drastically affect their finances. As such, it’s unsurprising that the hashrate has been in a downtrend recently.

Something interesting about the latest capitulation is that the hash ribbons have been giving this signal for 61 days now. “This one is for the record books as it’s taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving,” says Woo.

Related Reading: Dogecoin Whales Exit: Total Supply Plunges By Almost 9%

For comparison, here is a close-up view of how the stressful mining period in 2016 looked like:

Bitcoin 2017 Miner Capitulation

The miner capitulation event leading up to the 2017 bull run | Source: @woonomic on X

It took the miners 24 days to see a recovery back then, which is notably shorter than the length of the capitulation event in the current cycle thus far. The 2020 one was even shorter, with the hash ribbons seeing the reverse cross in 8 days.

Bitcoin 2020 miner recovery

The 2020 miner capitulation | Source: @woonomic on X

It now remains to be seen when the hash ribbons would cross back again this time around and whether the miner recovery would also lead towards a recovery in the Bitcoin price.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $63,900, down more than 4% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the price of the coin has been on the decline recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, woocharts.com, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

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Keshav is a Physics graduate who has been employed as a writer with Bitcoinist since June 2021. He is passionate about writing and through the years, he has gained experience working in a variety of niches. Keshav holds an active interest in the cryptocurrency market, with on-chain analysis being an area he particularly likes to research and write about.

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