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Bitcoin Price Not Moving Despite ETF Inflows Charles Edwards

Why Bitcoin Hasn’t Hit $100,000 Despite Huge ETF Inflows: Fund Manager

Jake Simmons
by Jake Simmons
1 year ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Despite substantial inflows into US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), with more than $1.5 billion added in just the last three days and an unprecedented 18-day streak of positive inflows, BTC’s price remains well below the highly anticipated $100,000 mark. The digital currency trades at around $71,000, a 50% increase since the ETFs’ inception but short of setting a new record high.

Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments, shared insights via a post on X addressing the community’s burning question: “Why aren’t we at $100,000 yet?” According to Edwards, the answer lies in several key factors beyond just the ETF inflows.

Why The Bitcoin Price Isn’t Rallying Higher

Edwards points out that US spot ETFs have absorbed 200% of the BTC mined since their launch in mid-January, a stark indication of robust demand. Despite such aggressive accumulation, the price surge expected by many market observers hasn’t materialized.

Related Reading: China Never Banned Bitcoin Mining, Researcher Reveals

“The inflow into Bitcoin ETFs represents a historically significant demand, yet we’re observing a counterbalance primarily due to long-term holder distribution,” Edwards explained. From an all-time high of 57% in December 2023, the share of BTC’s total supply held by long-term holders (those holding for 2+ years) has diminished to 54%. This shift translates to roughly 630,000 Bitcoins, about 300% of the year’s total BTC purchases by all US ETFs.

“This 3% shift, while seemingly minor, represents a substantial volume of Bitcoin moving from the strongest hands in the market to potentially more speculative or short-term oriented investors,” Edwards noted. Additionally, some of this selling is not pure market exit but rather transitions from older investment vehicles like Grayscale’s BTC Trust to newer ETF products, which may distort the perception of selling pressure.

Related Reading: Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Surge To $100,000 Pre-US Elections

Edwards also emphasized that the effects of the halving have yet to materialize. “With the daily Bitcoin issuance dropping by 50% in April, we will likely see the delta between ETF consumption and Bitcoin mined widen a lot over the next year. It also takes full quarters for institutions to review, sign-off and allocate (at best). So the major ETF flows are likely still ahead of us,” he stated.

Market timing and macroeconomic conditions further compound the situation. Edwards pointed out that June traditionally marks a lull in financial markets, including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, as it aligns with a risk-off sentiment among major asset managers. “Moreover, since the March peak in Bitcoin’s price, USD liquidity has been relatively flat and even slightly negative. This liquidity environment is crucial as it influences investor capacity to inject capital into risk assets like Bitcoin.”

Looking ahead, Edwards remains optimistic but cautious. He outlined three catalysts that could drive Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 and beyond: “Increased daily buying volumes from ETFs, a decrease in selling from long-term holders, and a rejuvenation in US liquidity are essential for robust price appreciation. While these factors may align in the future, the exact timing remains uncertain.”

At press time, BTC traded at $71,659.

Bitcoin price
BTC price nears $72,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from YouTube @Mark Moss, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

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Jake Simmons has been a Bitcoin enthusiast since 2016. Ever since he heard about Bitcoin, he has been studying the topic every day and trying to share his knowledge with others. His goal is to contribute to Bitcoin's financial revolution, which will replace the fiat money system. Besides BTC and crypto, Jake studied Business Informatics at a university. After graduation in 2017, he has been working in the blockchain and crypto sector. You can follow Jake on Twitter at @realJakeSimmons.

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