The crypto market’s next direction has spent recent weeks in uncertainty, with Bitcoin trading below $112,000 and large market cap altcoins moving in unclear directions. Nonetheless, beneath the short-term swings, a major technical shift is quietly unfolding in the altcoin market.
According to analysis by crypto analyst CrypFlow, the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding Bitcoin) has just completed its highest monthly close on record. This close could change the conversation around whether a new alt season is about to begin.
Breakout Beyond Previous Cycle Tops
Although August ended with many cryptocurrencies closing below their highs for that month, analysis of the altcoin market cap shows that the altcoin market managed to register its highest monthly close ever.
Interestingly, crypto analyst CrypFlow pointed to the long-term monthly chart of the altcoin market, which shows how the current rally is building on historical cycle patterns. After the cycle top in 2018 and another in 2021, followed by the 2022 bottom, the chart now shows a close above a breakout line. The breakout line on the chart is the culmination of an upward trend that has been forming since the 2022 cycle bottom, which is connected by a series of higher lows.
The most recent monthly close is also a breakout above the cycle top in 2021, and the altcoin market now has a total valuation of around $1.6 trillion. This highest monthly close, alongside some bullish divergence indicators, shows that the altcoin market cap may be preparing for a strong rally just like after it closed above the 2018 cycle top back in 2020.
One of the most notable confirmations comes from the MACD, which has just crossed into bullish territory on the monthly timeframe. As noted by CrypFlow, this kind of signal is rare and often precedes large upside moves. Interestingly, the RSI, too, is just above the midpoint, meaning the altcoin market cap still has a long way to go before being oversold.
What This Means For Alt Season
As it stands, the altcoin market is about to enter into a bullish period that could determine the rest of the year. Past cycles have shown that many altcoins typically deliver their strongest performances between October and December. As shown in the chart above, the altcoin market cap also closed above its 2018 in late 2020.
If this late-year trend repeats itself, the current breakout could be the trigger for one of the most decisive altcoin rallies yet. Going by the previous performance in 2020 and 2021, the altcoin market could register multiple bullish candles in the months left in 2025 and the first few months of 2026. This, in turn, could translate into a full-blown altcoin season for altcoins round the board. But this all depends on how large market cap altcoins like Ethereum and XRP perform in the rest of the year.
