This cycle’s Altcoin Season is still not certain yet despite the significant anticipation surrounding it. For a long period, many alts have failed to initiate a huge price rally, which solely raises speculations about the expected altseason occurring in the ongoing market cycle.
Weak Altcoin Performance Hinders The Anticipated Altseason
Hope for an Altcoin Season may wane as most alts persistently underperform in the current bull market cycle. Bitcoin continues to dominate the market and alts are struggling to see a major rally as key resistance levels hinder growth.
As uncertainty grows within the community, Alphractal, an advanced on-chain data platform has shed light on the impending altseason using key indicators to determine its validity in this cycle. Specifically, the platform utilizes the Altcoin Season Index metric to examine alts performances in recent months.
According to the platform, the key metric has recently declined to its lowest level since June 2023 due to the poor performance of alts over the last 60 days. A drop in this metric reduces the possibility of an altseason happening in the short term. Alts’ poor performance has caused investors to focus solely on Bitcoin, limiting capital inflows to other smaller market-cap assets.
The decrease in the index may raise concerns about the possibility of an alt season. However, Alphractal highlighted that it might be considered an opportunity for accumulation given that several cryptocurrencies have had much larger declines than Bitcoin.
In the meantime, major crypto assets such as XRP and Litecoin (LTC) are marginally ahead of BTC in terms of cumulative performance. Given that Bitcoin already controls about 60% of the general market, any recovery by the asset could cause a sharp upswing in altcoins.
Since the alt market is down, Alphractal believes it would be more prudent to amass undervalued tokens with robust communities, substantial volume, and low pricing compared to Bitcoin. On the other hand, the platform warns it is crucial to note that the Altcoin Season Index may spend days or even months in the Bitcoin Season zone.
Thus examining the metric will help investors reassess their strategies during this volatile period. In the absence of a strong catalyst to ignite an altcoin rally, altseason stays elusive, making traders wary of short-term price movements.
Alts Market Dominance See Decline
While BTC’s dominance has increased, alts market dominance has been decreasing since the beginning of the year. Market expert Daan Crypto Trades stated that the market retested its June 2023 lows and the lowest point in 4 years. Should the decline extend, more capital could continue to flow into BTC, creating a bearish outlook for alt season this cycle.
Daan draws similarities between the present decline and the one of the last cycle, but this time it is quicker and more severe. Alt’s big move up in dominance occurred in 2021 following the Bitcoin Halving event just like in 2025.
A repetition of this trend shows that an alt season may be on the horizon. “So far it’s remotely the same but especially the last year we’ve seen altcoins perform worse compared to the previous cycle,” the expert stated.
