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Bitcoin Balance On Exchanges Shrinks – Supply Shock Ahead?

Bitcoin Balance On Exchanges Shrinks – Supply Shock Ahead?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
1 month ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is holding firm around the $104,000 mark after a sharp rally driven by days of sustained buying pressure and renewed market optimism. Bulls regained control when BTC reclaimed the $90,000 level in late April, reversing months of aggressive selling that had weighed on price action. The shift in sentiment has been clear, with bullish momentum building quickly and pushing the market back into key supply zones.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flashes 1st Bullish Signal Since February – Details

Supporting this trend, on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that over 110,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past month. Historically, large outflows from centralized platforms signal growing investor confidence and reduced sell-side liquidity—two key components of strong upward trends. This behavior often precedes major rallies, as long-term holders tighten supply while sidelining coins from near-term trading.

Now, with Bitcoin trading just below all-time highs, the market appears to be entering a new phase. Investors are watching closely as BTC consolidates above $100K, with analysts suggesting that the current structure sets the stage for another leg higher. If exchange withdrawals continue and sentiment stays bullish, a break toward the $109K all-time high could come sooner than expected.

Bitcoin Faces Final Resistance Before Price Discovery

Bitcoin is now preparing to test uncharted territory after enduring months of heavy selling pressure and persistent market skepticism. Following a strong recovery since late April, BTC is currently finding resistance around the $105,000 level — a critical price point that could define the next phase of the cycle. This area, just shy of the all-time high, is likely to attract both profit-taking and speculative interest, which may result in increased volatility before a decisive breakout.

If bulls manage to push above the $105K mark, a surge toward new all-time highs would be imminent. However, this level also represents a psychological barrier that could trigger a short-term rejection. Despite this, the underlying data supports a strong bullish outlook.

Top analyst Ali Martinez shared recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant showing that over 110,000 BTC have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges over the past month. Such a large volume of withdrawals historically correlates with accumulation by long-term holders, signaling confidence and reduced selling pressure.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve | Source: Ali Martinez on X
Bitcoin Exchange Reserve | Source: Ali Martinez on X

This behavior suggests that the recent rally is not just fueled by speculative hype but also supported by structural shifts in supply. As BTC supply tightens and demand increases, particularly with institutional flows rising, the setup for a sustained breakout strengthens. While some short-term resistance may persist, the broader trend now favors the bulls. If exchange outflows continue at this pace and macro sentiment remains stable, Bitcoin could soon enter a price discovery phase, leaving behind the range that defined its movement for much of 2025.

Related Reading: Ethereum Analyst Sets $12,000 Target – Fundamentals Signal A Bullish Phase

BTC Price Action Details: Technical Levels

Bitcoin is trading around the $104,000 mark after a powerful breakout rally that started in late April. As shown in the daily chart, BTC surged through the $90K resistance and cleared $100K with strong momentum, but is now facing resistance near $104K–$105K, a zone that previously acted as a major supply region during the February highs.

BTC testing last resistance before ATH | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing last resistance before ATH | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The chart reveals that BTC is consolidating just below this resistance with a small retrace and declining volume, suggesting a cooling of momentum after several days of aggressive buying. This isn’t necessarily bearish — short pauses are common before retesting key levels, especially when RSI and volume stretch. The 200-day moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA) remain well below the current price, showing that bulls maintain structural control.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Capital Rotation Signals Healthy Inflows – Strong Market Structure Forms

The key levels to watch now are $103,600 (short-term support) and $104,900–$105,500 (resistance zone). A clean break above this range would open the path toward new all-time highs. Conversely, a failure to break higher may lead to a retest of the breakout zone near $100K. Overall, price action remains bullish, but the next few candles will be decisive for short-term trend continuation.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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