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Bitcoin Halving Facts: Past Price Data May Shed Light On What’s To Come

Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro · @tonyspilotroBTC | May 06, 2020 | 15:00

Bitcoin Halving Bitcoin

Bitcoin Halving Facts: Past Price Data May Shed Light On What’s To Come

Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro · @tonyspilotroBTC | May 06, 2020 | 15:00


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Bitcoin’s halving is only seven days away. According to historical data, the first-ever cryptocurrency is tracking its previous cycle’s price action perfectly.

Here are some interesting facts about Bitcoin’s price action just ahead of the past two halvings. 

Looking Back at the Past Two Bitcoin Halving Cycles One Week Out

Markets are cyclical, and history often repeats. Analysts also often warn that past performance does not guarantee future results.

When it comes to Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency’s hard-coded halving, lightning has struck twice thus far. Will the third time be the charm, or will a selloff occur?

The halving narrative is the most bullish thing going for the cryptocurrency market, but these narratives are often used as sell the news events.

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To try to gain a clearer view on what to expect if history does repeat once again, and the Bitcoin halving ends up being the dramatic shift in supply and demand that causes the next bull market.

Looking at past data, during the first cycle, at one week away from the halving, Bitcoin was trading at a price 63% down from the previous peak. This was also over 485% from the local bottom.

In the second cycle, one week out, BTC was trading at 45% down from the 2013 top, and up 300% from the bottom.

2nd Cycle Bitcoin Halving

This time around, Bitcoin is trading at the exact average between the two previous tops to one week out price action at 54% down from the top. This suggests that Bitcoin is on pace perfectly with the average of both past halving cycles.

The data from the bottom is slightly different, however, this could due to each cycle’s diminishing returns.

3rd Cycle Bitcoin Halving

On average, BTC rose by over 324% from the bottom to the levels trading one week out from the halving. Bitcoin is only up 189% from its bear market bottom of $3,200 currently.

Post-Halving BTC Price Rises By 6,000% With Risk of Just 25% Drawdown

Now that we have an idea of if Bitcoin price is pacing along with past cycles, what might we be able to expect if a similar surge takes place following the event?

bitcoin price btc halving

Following the first cycle, Bitcoin price rose over 9378% from the price traded at just one week out. During the second cycle, there was a slight drawdown following the halving, but in the end, Bitcoin price rallied over 2872% to a new peak from the price traded at just seven days from the last halving.

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On average, this means BTC has risen over 6000% post-halving.

Bitcoin’s next halving is here, and if it has even a slightly similar impact, the financial upside could be astronomical. And with an average drawdown of only 27% ever seen post halving, taking a risk here with Bitcoin very well could pay off.

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