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Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin Halving: Why Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causation

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
by Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT
2 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

The Bitcoin halving is unequivocally the one thing that’s expected to cause price to increase, according to the masses.

In this article, we’ll refute — with evidence — why the block reward halving is nothing more than a correlation, not causation of bull markets.

Is The Bitcoin Halving Bullish Or Bullshit?

Bitcoin price continues to meander mostly sideways for going on its sixth month. Few expect any type of movement to the upside until after the next block reward halving. The recurring event happening every four years, is scheduled for approximately April 2024.

Bitcoin halving

Is the halving responsible for rallies? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Looking at the 1M BTCUSD price chart, it is very easy to see why, upon visual inspection, one might assume that Bitcoin rises after the halving and that it is pretty much a sure thing at this point.

Especially when you consider the idea that slashing the block reward to miners could theoretically throw off supply and demand.

Bitcoin halving

Does it also boost tech stocks? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why Does The Block Reward Reduction Boost Tech Stocks?

But why then, upon that same visual inspection, did the Bitcoin halving cause the Nasdaq 100 to go up? The same visual correlation exists, up until recently, where the NDX has been ripping higher.

Related Reading: Eight Years of Ethereum: A Walk Down Memory Chain

This disputes that correlation does not in fact mean causation, as this would suggest that the cause of the stock market rising would also be the halving, which is simply not true.

Bitcoin halving

Risk-on trends are strengthening | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why BTC Won’t Wait Around, If Stocks Set New ATH

Using the Average Directional Index to gauge overall trend strength, we can see that historically, the Nasdaq trend strength has risen above 20 precisely around the time of the Bitcoin halving.

Related Reading: Examining The Potential Impact of the Impending Litecoin Halving

This time, however, it’s strengthening early, and if it pushes above 20, new all-time highs in the stock market become more likely. With the NDX only a short distance from a new all-time high, it could happen sooner than later.

Bitcoin halving

The strongest pre-halving reading | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The Average Directional Index usually only strengthens on the 1W timeframe to the degree it has after the Bitcoin halving. Yet, here it is, with one of the highest weekly readings on the ADX ever.

This is the Nasdaq ADX we are referring to in these charts, but the correlation coefficient between NDX and BTCUSD remain at strong positive and growing on the highest timeframes. Simply put, there is evidence that if the stock market makes new all-time highs before the Bitcoin halving, that BTCUSD will do so also.

This chart and entire excerpts originally appeared as premium content in Issue #14 of CoinChartist (VIP). Subscribe for free. Upgrade for premium to read the rest of the content.

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT

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Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, a technical analyst and Head of Research at Bitcoinist. As the founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform for crypto traders focused on technical analysis, Tony provides his expertise to help others understand and apply this methodology. He has partnered with industry leaders like Elliott Wave International and TradingView. Through his partnerships, educational resources, and leadership roles, Tony has established himself as an authority on leveraging technical analysis to trade cryptocurrencies.

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