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Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Go Quiet – On-Chain Signals Hint Classic Accumulation

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Go Quiet – On-Chain Signals Hint Classic Accumulation

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
4 weeks ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is navigating a high-stakes environment as escalating Middle East tensions and mounting macroeconomic risks fuel market volatility. The flagship cryptocurrency is holding above critical support, with bulls maintaining control for now. However, hawkish conditions—driven by rising US Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and geopolitical instability—pose a real threat to Bitcoin’s strength. A drop below the psychological $100,000 mark could shift sentiment sharply bearish.

Related Reading: Bitcoin CEX Inflows Fall Below 1-Year Average – Are Bulls Losing Steam Or Gaining Ground?

Analysts are split on what comes next. Some point to the macro environment and see potential for deeper corrections. Others remain confident, calling for an imminent breakout and new all-time highs, driven by long-term structural demand.

Supporting the bullish view, new data from CryptoQuant highlights a powerful accumulation trend among long-term holders (LTHs). According to their research, spending activity from this cohort is now near historic lows—levels typically associated with early accumulation phases. In fact, in three of the last four similar instances, Bitcoin rallied 18–25% in the following 6 to 8 weeks.

While short-term uncertainty clouds the outlook, the combination of low LTH spending and resilient support levels suggests that a significant move could be forming. Whether it’s a breakout or breakdown will depend on how global conditions evolve in the coming days.

Bitcoin Consolidates Above $105K As Long-Term Holders Signal Strength

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase following its powerful rally from $74,000 to a new all-time high near $112,000. While the market has cooled off from its peak, BTC remains resilient above the $105,000 mark—a key level that now acts as support. This tight trading range reflects a broader sense of uncertainty, as investors await clarity on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and macroeconomic shifts before committing to the next major move.

The coming weeks will be decisive. A resolution to the Israel-Iran conflict or a shift in monetary expectations could ignite a breakout. Conversely, prolonged volatility or new macro shocks may delay the next phase of the cycle. Still, many analysts maintain a bullish long-term view, projecting that BTC could soon enter price discovery and break above its $112K ATH.

Adding to this optimism, CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler points to a compelling on-chain signal. The entire Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort is showing spending activity near historic lows, levels typically associated with accumulation phases. In three out of the last four similar cases, Bitcoin rallied 18–25% over the following 6–8 weeks. This suggests strong conviction among experienced holders.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Spending Binary Indicator | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Spending Binary Indicator | Source: Axel Adler on X

Adler also notes that the current weakness in the LTH binary indicator is reinforced by other bullish signals: a positive shift in CDD Momentum (Coin Days Destroyed) and a still-elevated MVRV Z-score. Both metrics historically align with trend continuation and undervaluation periods.

Together, these on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin is quietly building a base, with long-term holders accumulating rather than distributing. While short-term volatility may persist, the broader structure points toward a potential breakout once uncertainty clears.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Permanent Holder Demand Accelerates – Gearing Up For A Breakout?

BTC Price Range Holds as Market Awaits Breakout

Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,569 on the daily chart, consolidating within a clearly defined range between the $103,600 support and the $109,300 resistance. This range has now been respected for several weeks, with BTC repeatedly testing both boundaries without a confirmed breakout or breakdown. The $103,600 level—Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from December 2024—has now become a critical demand zone. Buyers have consistently stepped in near this level, preventing further downside despite recent macro volatility and Middle East conflict concerns.

BTC consolidation below $112K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC consolidation below $112K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

From a moving average perspective, BTC is still holding above the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) simple moving averages, signaling that mid-term momentum remains bullish. The 200-day SMA (red) sits far below the current price, reinforcing BTC’s broader uptrend. A daily close above $109,300 could signal a return to price discovery, likely triggering renewed bullish momentum and a potential push beyond $112K.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Firm Above Previous ATH – Momentum Builds Despite Global Unease

However, if $103,600 fails to hold in the event of renewed macroeconomic fear or negative news, BTC could drop toward the $97,000–$98,000 range. Until then, the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode. The setup remains constructive as long as support levels continue to attract buyers and the higher time frame structure holds.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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